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Trump After the Midterms: Limited at Home, Free Abroad?

A blue wave could hinder Trump's domestic agenda but still leave his foreign policy unchecked

October 30, 2026

Will Putin Order a New Draft? Russia’s Mobilization Risk

Putin appears determined to avoid a general mobilization. But will the mounting death toll in Ukraine force his hand?

October 30, 2026

Why AI Labs Can’t Slow Down: The Prisoner’s Dilemma Explained

AI labs are warning of extinction-level threats and say they want to slow down. Game theory explains why none of them is likely to do so.

October 22, 2026

Israeli Intelligence in Iran: Victim of Its Own Success

Israel’s spies have operated inside Iran with astonishing reach for two decades. But the wars that showed off their tradecraft may have cost them some of their best sources, and a high-profile recruitment effort potentially highlights Mossad’s own susceptibility to penetration.

October 15, 2026

Germany: Weakening Firewall Threatens Efforts to Contain Russia

The recent surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) challenges one post-World War II norm while the German government is trying to overturn another

October 9, 2026

A Toll Without Precedent Since 1945: Russia’s Losses in Ukraine, in Historical Context

No major power has absorbed losses on this scale since 1945. They have allowed Russia to gain less than 1.5 percent of Ukraine, and this spring its army began giving ground back.

June 30, 2026

The Minerals Push Has a Demand Problem

The Trump administration has invested billions to break China's grip on critical minerals. Analysts say a policy contradiction is undermining the effort.

June 28, 2026

Even If the Strait Stays Open, Will Anyone Go Back In?

Ten days after a US-Iran deal, two tanker attacks have exposed the gap between market confidence and operational reality.

June 28, 2026

Who Guards the Web?

Iran has threatened to attack or tax the undersea cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. No body of international law has the tools to stop it.

May 19, 2026

Venezuela’s President Has a Legitimacy Problem

Delcy Rodríguez's 90-day mandate expired in April. No elections have been called, and her hold on power rests on US backing.

May 8, 2026

China Is Winning the Iran War Without Fighting It

Beijing has sent no ships into combat, lost no soldiers, and taken no side. It is also emerging from six weeks of war as one of its principal beneficiaries.

April 17, 2026

Iran War Leaves Ukraine with a New Vulnerability

In six weeks of war in the Gulf, the US and its allies burned through more Patriot interceptors than the West produces in a year. Russia is seeking to take advantage of resulting supply shortfalls in Ukraine, whose government depends on those same missiles for its defense.

April 10, 2026