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Trump After the Midterms: Limited at Home, Free Abroad?

A blue wave could hinder Trump's domestic agenda but still leave his foreign policy unchecked

October 30, 2026

Will Putin Order a New Draft? Russia’s Mobilization Risk

Putin appears determined to avoid a general mobilization. But will the mounting death toll in Ukraine force his hand?

October 30, 2026

How Iran Outsources Attacks to Criminal Gangs and Proxies

Iran is tapping into the gig economy for attacks abroad via gangs, drug traffickers, and other for-hire criminal proxies. How prepared is the West?

October 22, 2026

Why AI Labs Can’t Slow Down: The Prisoner’s Dilemma Explained

AI labs are warning of extinction-level threats and say they want to slow down. Game theory explains why none of them is likely to do so.

October 22, 2026

Do the Middle Powers Have a Plan?

Canada is leading a new “Middle-Power” push to rebuild the world’s crumbling multilateral order. Shared unease with US and Chinese leadership may not be enough to construct an alternative.

October 15, 2026

Protectorate No Longer: Japan Emerging From US Security Dependence

For decades, Japan has been an economic giant but a marginal military power. That's changing.

October 9, 2026

Germany: Weakening Firewall Threatens Efforts to Contain Russia

The recent surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) challenges one post-World War II norm while the German government is trying to overturn another

October 9, 2026

Keepers of the Flame

In Iran, the United States confronted a regime whose spine was stiffened in part by revolutionary fervor. Military action against Cuba could encounter the same source of implacability.

June 28, 2026

In the Iran War, China Sees a Familiar Strategic Opening

After September 11, Beijing declared a “period of strategic opportunity” created by US military overextension in the Middle East and Central Asia. The Iran war may be creating another such window.

May 15, 2026