Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
This week on One Decision, host Christina Ruffini previews the 2025 Munich Security Conference with Deutsche Welle’s chief political correspondent Nina Haase, who is also the host of DW’s Berlin Briefing podcast. Together they share insights into what to expect from the conference, including the highly anticipated appearance of United States Vice President JD Vance and his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and how European countries are facing a second Trump administration. Stay tuned to the feed tomorrow as One Decision and Deutsche Welle bring you a live panel discussion with global women leaders, including Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, former Icelandic Foreign Minister Þórdís Kolbrún R. Gylfadóttir, and former Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Kajsa Ollongren, to discuss the rapidly shifting landscape of international relations, emerging security risks, and geopolitical challenges facing the West today. Stay tuned for the full panel discussion.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Raffini: I'm Christina Raffini. Welcome to One Decision. Hello, and welcome to a special teaser episode of our One Decision podcast, and we have here our counterpart for our panel and some of our events that we're doing in Munich at the Munich Security Conference where leaders from all around the world come almost every year to talk about security issues, international affairs, and this year is going to be especially spicy given what's going on in the US and of course everyone in Europe is talking about it. The Vice President J. D. Vance will be here along with other high ranking Trump administration officials. But before we kick off with our panel tomorrow, I wanted to reach out to our panel co-host Nina Haas from DW TV, which is the German broadcaster here, they are the official partners of the Munich Security Conference.
Haas: Yeah, I'm really glad to be on the One Decision pod. Really exciting, Christina, to be doing that with you together. I'm Nina Haas, German native. I work for DW, Germany's international broadcaster. I'm the chief political correspondent there and I cover anything happening from the German perspective, where the German perspective is interesting. I have a particular focus on defense, but not just, but yeah.
Raffini: So for people who don't know, what is the Munich Security Conference? How many years have you been covering it and like kind of what happens here?
Haas: It is a meeting that goes back decades where essentially the world comes together. It had a very strong transatlantic focus to start with, discussing essentially the European standpoint on international affairs. It was always an opportunity as well for policymakers to get together with their American counterparts. Also, you know, Christina, have lots of background meetings. It's not about the panels per se, I would say. Munich has always been, and especially this year as well, about all those talks that happen between the doors, that happen on the corridors where people actually get to see each other, right?
Raffini: Yeah, it's kind of funny. I mean, it's not an official government event, right? And they program this whole thing and there's always panels and people talking. But to your point, yeah, it's like that's kind of the sideshow too. It's this like hotel in downtown Munich. And I've been there before with the official US delegation. Each, like, delegation kind of gets like a section of a floor. And it's very odd. I mean, for reporters, it's great because you get a lot of access. I mean, I remember just like members of Congress wandering through and saying hi to the press, the vice president wandering the other way. And then there's this weird little, like, cafe coffee bar on the, like, a half a level up. And you can walk in there and see like foreign ministers from different countries, defense ministers.
Haas: It's a charming little hotel and people have no idea how crowded, just how crowded it is. And I remember once I really had to run back to a live that I had to do for DW. And then I just couldn't get to the camera position because there was just no way to run through the American delegation. And everybody had to stop. And I saw a couple of broad shoulders in front of me and then I realized that I knew all the politicians from smaller European countries also had to stand and wait. And so we were all just waiting for the American delegation to go through and nobody could move. It's not your personal fault, but no, it is fascinating to be there. Obviously they have a couple of additions, especially in the last couple of years, where they've tried to broaden it to more international crises. But you always have to say, at least, especially for the last three years now, Ukraine has definitely taken center stage. Vladimir Putin launched his full scale invasion into Ukraine just a few days after the MSC 2022 happened.
Raffini: So that was actually the last one of these I was at, as I was here for Zelensky's appearance and everyone was saying he shouldn't come because he shouldn't leave the country because it could risk, he may not be able to get back if Russia invaded and he came anyway and gave his big speech and then —
Haas: No, but we are very aware that Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin is watching the MSC and he sometimes uses these moments to shock everybody who's a supporter of Ukraine. And he does have a thing with dates, doesn't he, Vladimir Putin? And he will use symbolically the Munich Security Conference to commit things that everybody has sort of thought, 'Ah, we're waiting for this to happen.' And then the Munich Security Conference happens. And last year, Alexei Navalny gets found dead in his cell, right? So one of his strongest critics, that was also during the MSC. And then Alexei Navalny's widow was there and gave a moving speech. And that, of course, that set the tone for the entire conference right away.
Raffini: One of the things I found interesting is on the official Twitter site for the MSC, they have posted something that says, how can democracies counter attacks from within as part of the agenda for the security forum? That seems very pointed to me. Did you read that the same way?
Haas: Yeah, it is something where a lot of Europeans in particular, I find are still in denial. Many security experts will tell you now, even on the record, that we are at war. It is a hybrid war and there are lots of attacks that are happening. You know, we have stories here where we see a lot of drones in Germany over military installations, military bases, where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained and people are still grappling with this new reality. So I think the MSC is also always a forum to raise awareness about issues, you know, to have an impact on the general discussion, where sometimes when you find yourself struggling with party politics or national domestic issues, you lose focus and you lose sight. And this is something definitely where they have understood they need to push the debate forward, because many countries are still reluctant to increase defense spending and all security experts, international foreign policy experts will tell you: No, sorry, but the time of peace dividends that you had here comfortably in Europe is up. But European countries especially are still in Western European countries and my own. We're not in a good situation. Still, we're still not completely sure whether we'll manage to meet that 2% GDP goal for defense spending.
TRUMP, UKRAINE, AND EUROPEAN SECURITY
Raffini: Well, and that's something that really upset President Trump his first term. And we did see a lot of European nations step up their defense spending and their commitment to NATO. But I think it's something that we're gonna see even more this next term, especially as you've got people like Secretary Pete Hegseth this week saying Ukraine has gotta come to the realization that it's not getting its borders back and it's not gonna become a member of NATO, and it needs to look to Europe to its own defense, which there's a couple contradictions in there. Mainly, you know, if a lot of the peace plans that have been floated for Ukraine, and keep in mind, these are not actually coming from Ukraine. These are coming from elsewhere, you know, have floated. Okay. Well, maybe they could capitulate some of their territory and their reward could be, you know, becoming a member of NATO. It's going to be a harder sell if they're asking them to give up territory and then not become a member of NATO and then turn to Europe for their security. But which European security apparatus would that be? Would that be this newly, you know, trying to get stood up EU defense wing? Would that be NATO? Would that be individual nations? You know, the UK and France have said they'd be willing to patrol a sort of DMZ in Ukraine. It's all very uncertain, and there certainly will be a lot to talk about at these panels. Is there something in particular you're looking for? Is there a common theme you think we're gonna hear?
Haas: I think it's definitely the big question. What is Trump going to do? Everybody's having big expectations because Donald Trump said that he wants the war to end. Many people, even in Europe, are saying, well, Trump uses instruments out of the box. So that also causes some insecurity, uncertainty for Vladimir Putin. Maybe this is a good opportunity. If Donald Trump uses all the instruments he has at his disposal, people will want to put a bit of flesh to that bone. What does that mean? What are the conditions that Ukraine can accept? Because it's clear that the Europeans will always say that Ukrainians have to decide when is the right time to agree to negotiations and then eventually agree to a ceasefire. And what can the conditions be? Does it have to mean giving up territory for good? Definitely not. The Ukrainians will not accept that. But I've heard people, including the head of the Munich Security Conference, float the idea of, you know, maybe you can agree to not give up the territory, but for a certain time you could give up your sovereignty on that territory and that territory can essentially be kept neutral. Now just how that would work, I don't know whether they're thinking of similar solutions to the one that we had here in Germany after the Second World War. That is definitely something, you know, where the eastern part of Germany also had very, very strong ties with the Soviet states at the time. But it was still, you know, never the idea was never given up that Germany would be reunited one day. So, you know, it's not just black and white and I think people are really looking forward to it. There is a lot of anxiety as well because of course it could also provoke the crisis to develop in a way that would potentially see escalation. But that is definitely the big question: what do the Americans want? What are they prepared to give? And then of course, if you do reach a ceasefire, who will guarantee Ukraine the security once they've agreed to put down the weapons to defend themselves? How do they know that Russia will stick to their words and not attack them again?
Raffini: Right. If you give a mouse a cookie, right? If you give Putin the Donbass, what else is he going to want? I will be curious to see how leaders react to Trump, because the first time around, there was a lot of open vocal pushback. And this time around, at least domestically, people are really scared to a point that is concerning. You are not hearing pushback like you were because every time there's pushback, there are immediate repercussions, which may or may not be legal, but then they got to get worked out in court. And everyone is afraid of that happening. And look, we saw it with Canada and Mexico with the tariffs. Those were able to be worked out, but you did hear a pretty strong showing from Trudeau because Trudeau, who had to call an election, he dissolved his government because he's unpopular and wasn't expected to win this next election, has now his Liberal Party's got, like, all kinds of an all-time high for standing up to him. But you didn't see that other places. You haven't seen that other places. You've seen very awkward silence. I mean, the Panamanians are a good example. Obviously, Rubio went down there as new Secretary of State on his first international trip, and he said they had good meetings and they discussed it. But we've been reaching out to the Panamanians non-stop, and they don't want to speak on the record yet because they're still trying to figure out what they're going to do. And it's the same for the Mexican government. Reached out to them, and they said, Look, we're in a crisis. We're not talking right now. And I feel like it's going to be interesting to see who will say the thing out loud here at Munich and who is going to wait and hang back and try to figure out what the strategy is going to be on how to handle a very emboldened and very erratic American leader.
Haas: Yeah, absolutely. That is a very, very tricky path for the Europeans, Volodymyr Zelensky in particular. I find him to be extreme. He's being very strategic. He's being very clever. He will flatter Donald Trump.
Raffini: And he's been fairly good at that. I mean, Macron, I think, is winning at that game, but Macron kind of brought Zelensky into that fold when they were in Paris. You know, they did the Notre Dame thing. They had this meeting. And even by Trump's own account, that meeting went fairly well. But, you know, he also lacks a bit of object permanence, right? So if it wasn't in front of him in the last couple months, he kind of forgets and you have to keep, to your point, flattering and being in his space, but in a non-confrontational way. I don't know.
Haas: Yeah, which is why it's really important for you to be in the same room as the American delegation, which is why everybody is so excited to hear from JD Vance. And like we say, meet him potentially in the corridors and just say, Hi, I'm the Prime Minister of Denmark and I really like Greenland and it's not yours. And I forgot about Greenland. This is definitely a good opportunity for the Europeans to introduce themselves because of course it's a complicated continent. It has a lot of countries and they're all very confident, but they're confident to a point that they still haven't understood that they need to speak with one voice when it comes to the Americans, when it comes to the Chinese, when it comes to the Asians, Indians, you know, all the Africans. The Europeans, I find them really cute sometimes, how they seem to just think everybody knows where France is. And I don't think people around the world necessarily care whether it's on the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, North Sea Coast. Really, you have to sit down if you're the President of France, have to sit down with the German chancellor and ideally also with the guy running the UK and say: Look Donald Trump, this is what we want and this is what we can offer. But the Europeans have a lot to learn, they are getting there, but it's taking a very, very long time. And at the same time, we've got a lot of countries, especially in Eastern Europe, that are very much in the sphere of the Kremlin and who are also seeing their star rising, you know, with Viktor Orbán in Hungary who's a member of the European Union. But he is definitely pushing the far right and the far right here in Germany. I mean, Alice Weidel, the leader of the far right who is probably going to see the party's best result in the national elections that we have here in just two weeks time, she visited Viktor Orbán and Orbán said: Hey Germany, welcome to the club, you know, it won't take long and then you're on the right side of history. I mean, quite literally, right? So yeah, the Europeans do have to learn how to speak to Donald Trump, but it will definitely — Munich will provide an opportunity for that. I think they're quite optimistic when it comes to international crises that have seen some sort of a deadlock. They're not very optimistic, of course, when it comes to all the developments that you've just described. Also with the role of Elon Musk when it comes to social media, when it comes to data collection, all of these things.
POLITICS, PUBLIC OPINION, AND SOCIAL MEDIA
Raffini: Well, when it comes to his role in the government, we in the US are not quite sure about what's going on there either. There is a concern as well that people are not concerned. I mean, CBS News just came out with a poll that shows 54-ish percent approval ratings for Donald Trump. And, you know, in Washington, the sky is falling because people are so dependent on these agencies that are being gutted and so many jobs are being lost. And, you know, my building alone, three people are not sure if they're unemployed or not because, again, it's being fought out in the courts. But in the rest of the country, people don't really seem to care. And that to me seems like a cataclysmic failure of not just Democrats, but Republicans who some of these agencies, you know, were set up by Republicans to show people what their government actually does for them. And I wonder if you feel like you're having that problem in Europe a little bit, in the governments are not doing enough to show their value to people in their everyday life and you're getting this kind of anti-establishment backlash.
Haas: Oh, definitely. But it definitely also has a very strong link to the rise of social media platforms. It is not just politicians' fault, you know, that the algorithms work the way the inventors of these algorithms want them to work.
Raffini: Right, they spin up rage and they take little minute molecules of rage and they aggregate them together so that it looks like an issue. And then the issue snowballs and then it becomes a trend. And then we're all looking at it.
Haas: You know, just to think about the fact that somebody will actually make money with rage, with enraged people. You know, people have always won over other people by stirring emotions and that is how we work as human beings and it's normal. Exactly, but with the internet and with the social media platforms people are now benefiting from other people's rage. So why should they stop doing that? And rage is the strongest emotion. We all know that. Happiness, yeah, okay, maybe you'll click on a post but maybe you won't because it just makes you smile and then you show your phone to other people. If you're really upset about something then of course you will interact. That is something where we here in Europe, we always think, okay, the US is about ten years ahead of us. Britain is about five years ahead of us and then the rest of the continent follows. And that is an extremely, extremely depressing thought. I really hope that the US has its checks and balances in place. I'm really keeping my fingers crossed because that is a worrying trend. It's a very worrying trend. And to take democracy for granted like that, that is something that frustrates me, you know, because it's so fragile, it's so easy to lose.
Raffini: Women's leadership panel ahead of the Munich Security Conference. Alright, that'll do it for us for now, but be sure to stay tuned for more content from Munich. We're going to be talking to leaders here all this week from the Middle East, from Europe, from the US, hopefully if they'll sit down with us. We're gonna be dropping that content in the feed as well as on the website and our social media channels. So tune in, get ready, please go to 1decision.com and we'll see you very soon. Thanks for listening.
