Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
After Iran shot down two US warplanes, President Trump shot back with a scathing ultimatum. But are Trump’s words pushing the world towards a point of no return? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine a weekend of high-stakes escalation in the Middle East. They discuss the thinking and implications behind President Trump’s explosive online rhetoric, as well as the global fallout of the war on energy markets in Asia and Oceania. Plus, they preview Hungary’s upcoming election, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces a significant challenge by Péter Magyar in an election that could remove a major "thorn in the side" of the European Union and unlock billions in aid for Ukraine.
In this episode:
00:22 – The war in Iran drags on
01:56 – IRGC assassinations and the strategy of regime implosion
06:15 – Trump’s ever-changing deadlines for Iran
07:37 – The rescue of the American weapons specialist
10:07 – The Truth Social ultimatum
11:04 – A US ground invasion scenario
13:23 – The global energy squeeze
15:53 – Hungary’s pivotal election
20:37 – Show announcement
Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist).
Listen & Subscribe
- Watch on YouTube
- Listen on Apple Podcasts
- Listen on Spotify
Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Lockwood: President Trump's threats to Iran escalated over the weekend, flirting with violation of international law. Will the US follow through, or is it more toothless rhetoric? Hello, and welcome to One Decision in Brief. I'm your guest cohost Rosanna Lockwood. I'm joined by my cohost as ever, Sir Richard Dearlove. Sir Richard, hello. Good to see you there. Hi, Rosanna. I was gonna say that I didn't think we'd be six weeks into discussing this war.
Dearlove: I have to say I'm not surprised. I didn't think this was anything that could end quickly given the nature of the conflict, and it's an aerial war which doesn't necessarily produce rapid results, if any. And I think we're still in that situation. But, of course, the reverberations now are hitting the global economy quite seriously. So Trump's under a lot of pressure, but I think their objective is to create a situation in which the Iranian regime does eventually implode. And it didn't happen quickly, and I don't think they've entirely abandoned that prospect. Okay, I know that's a bit of an extreme interpretation, but I think the evidence points in that direction.
Lockwood: I mean, that's the only way in which I could see the US could actually claim, quote unquote, victory in this and and get away from the situation saying that they have secured something. And, obviously, the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, would be particularly in favor of that, not having a weakened IRGC across the Hormuz. But at this point, we haven't seen maybe some of the other angles explored. Obviously, deployment of foot soldiers, use of the Kurds, all of these things sort of somehow remain in reserve. Do you think it's got to be something like that that will cause the downfall of the regime or just simply more assassinations one after the other?
INSIDE IRAN
Dearlove: Well, I think it's gonna be increasing pressure on the regime in a variety of different ways. So the latest assassination is the killing of Hatami, the head of the IRGC's intelligence organization. I think that's a bit of a misnomer. As far as I can see, he was really the guy in charge of internal security and more broadly security in Iran. So I think he carried a lot of personal responsibility for the number of people killed during the last set of public demonstrations against the regime. So that's a pretty significant event, and I'm surprised if he was in charge of security, he hadn't, as it were, had good enough security to look after himself. But once again, I think that's indicative of the coverage that the Israelis have. I think there's one interesting thing which I certainly looked into a bit last night, but there's quite a lot of reporting on bits of the Internet that there are significant breakdown of authorities in bits of Iran. Now is this Israeli sort of intelligence misleading the media, or is something actually going on in Iran where there are strains and stresses at the local level in some significant towns? So I think that's something to watch for, and it may be just propaganda. But it's definitely there in quite a significant amount, but whether it's true or not remains to be seen.
Lockwood: Absolutely. This fog, fog of war, fog of information, a swamp that we now have to contend with because obviously we know that reporting that actually comes from inside Iran is usually having to be done quite covertly. People speaking to sources outside, journalists and things, and then, as you say, it could well be misinformation being spread by Israel or indeed any other Western country as well. It's very tough to see what's accurate. I mean, some analysis I saw as well is that with regards to these negotiations, the leaders that remain at the IRGC apparently are nervous about having them in person, given the threat to their own safety and security. From what reporting I've seen from credible sites like Al Jazeera, it's apparently Steve Witkoff communicating with Araghchi via sort of messages through these mediated countries is what we're seeing at the moment, which has got us to this point. Certainly, we keep hearing the specter of ceasefire. We now know that, this time of recording, but things could also change by the time this broadcasts, that Iran has looked at the ceasefire, has prepared its response. Maybe we'll get that response within the next twenty four, forty eight hours. But certainly, I know a lot of people there in the Middle East would welcome a ceasefire with open arms. But do you think it could hold?
Dearlove: I think if you actually get an agreement, there is a strong possibility it can hold for long enough for it to be explored as an opening for a more profound negotiation. But I think at the moment, the ceasefire proposals express the wishes of the countries that are affected by the war, but not actually engaged in it. So this latest proposal, I think, looks as though it's been written by the Pakistanis. But then the latest news is that the Iranians are rejecting it, but will respond within twenty four hours, as you said. So that's maybe the next step. And, yeah, I guess at the moment, skeptical of an agreement. And I've just seen something online which indicates that the Israelis have already attacked one of the main petroleum producing facilities in Iran. Whether that counts as part of the, you know, domestic power infrastructure, I'm not sure. But it's certainly an escalation in terms of targeting Iranian critical infrastructure.
TRUMP AND THE MEDIA
Lockwood: It makes ceasefire negotiations difficult. We're in an age of deadlines here and, again, recording this before Trump's next news announcement, so we will have heard it by the time this is broadcast. But from what I'm noting here, in the US more than ever, obviously, seen this throughout my reporting career, is that the one thing Trump feels he can control is the news media and the markets. So what he can do is set deadlines endlessly. And that's what he's doing again, is setting more news conferences so that he can speak domestically to the voting public in the US. And I was wondering whether there would be coded messages or uncoded messages to Iran through his message, but it seemed very much focused on his domestic audience. And I feel like what we're gonna see tonight, and again, this broadcast after we will have seen it, is gonna focus very much on the rescue of this airman, this US Air Force airman from the shot down F-15E fighter jet, everyone, which, by all accounts, an absolutely stunning rescue operation. No doubt. The Hollywood movie is gonna be spectacular. But there's more to this war than that, isn't there? The rescue of one man. So is there anything else at play here, do you think, with the way Trump is managing everything in terms of his communications?
Dearlove: Well, I think he's a master at, as it were, teasing the international media and creating uncertainty by making contradictory statements. And, obviously, he's gonna play out the story of the rescue, which reading some of the detail now looks as that's pretty extraordinary because the US special forces managed to write off two C-130 Hercules. Probably once they were on the ground, couldn't take off again, and therefore, they chucked hand grenades into the aircraft to destroy them because they didn't want to leave them behind intact. But then they summoned another aircraft which clearly hadn't been damaged and got everybody out. So, yes, it is a bit of a Hollywood movie, which would appeal to Trump's sense of drama. And I must say, it's a special forces operation, and it's pretty extraordinary. And I think, strategically, there's one aspect of this which is important apart from the sort of daredevil performance of the military, is that an American weapons expert in the F-15 as an Iranian hostage would have been a real problem for the Trump administration, I think, at this point in time. So they've managed to avoid that compromising move. But I think you're right. I mean, strategically, it isn't really a big deal. It's just part of the ongoing story. And I think I'm surprised the F-15 came down. But on the other hand, given the intensity of deployment of aircraft over Iran, sooner or later, one was gonna crash or, by chance, get hit. And I don't think it really points to the effectiveness of Iranian air defenses. I think they really have been taken down. And there was a second aircraft, one of these A-10s, which are known as Warthogs, which crashed into the ocean. But they are extremely vulnerable to ground fire because they fly very slowly, although they have an armored cabin or an armored area around the pilots, so the pilot probably was safe, and the aircraft was probably hit by just ordinary ground fire and therefore had to ditch in the ocean. So the loss of that aircraft isn't so surprising.
Lockwood: And another big deadline, of course, is the, I think it's fair to say, foul mouthed, expletive filled rhetoric that we heard from President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Sunday. Let's remind ourselves of him saying, quote, Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the effing strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah, he wrote on Easter Sunday to the American public and to Iran and to everyone else. I mean, that's so undignified and so extraordinary.
Dearlove: I wish he was a little more moderate in expressing his extremism. It just detracts from, as it were, the dignity and position of the president of the United States, which some of us find pretty shocking. But I'm still of the view that the US are going to use the marines that they've deployed into the region. And I think that implies probably an invasion of the main island in the Straits of Hormuz, which is on the Iranian side of the channel, and, of course, it's occupied by strategic Iranian positions, radar, and other such things. And then I think they would likely take Kharg Island. If the Iranians do not back down, I'm pretty sure that's the direction things are going in. So maybe fulfilling the promises.
Lockwood: Obviously, the US blew up a huge bridge, a very important structurally engineered beautiful bridge in Iran. So the bridges may still continue to explode, but you think the ground soldiers coming in too, and Iran is not gonna stop retaliating. It's gonna keep going down to the end, it would seem. So it's a pretty big threat. And, I mean, if you do see deployment of soldiers, the taking of Kharg Island, how do you see it playing out from here? How much longer could it go on for?
Dearlove: You know, they're going for bust. And as I've said, and I think some sort of implosion of the regime, which I would interpret possibly as a split in the leadership with more moderate politicians coming forward and wanting a separate negotiation. So it could be the more moderate prime minister who's already had a public disagreement with the IRGC leadership. I think there are a number of options. But if they were to take Kharg Island, that, to an extent, throttles the petroleum economy, and that will have a profound effect on the position of any Iranian administration. And I think that my conclusion is that if you put the number of troops into the immediate area with the strategic capability that they've got, if Trump doesn't get a ceasefire deal which is agreeable to the states, which it doesn't look as going to happen, then the option has to be further escalation. So I don't think this is finished yet. I'm pessimistic that we are near to an end to the fighting.
GLOBAL ENERGY SHOCK
Lockwood: Pessimistic indeed. Now speaking, strait of Hormuz, Asia is really feeling the pinch from all of this in terms of energy, hugely reliant on Gulf energy sources. And, of course, we had a statement from Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese last week, and it's really dire straits for Australia. They're not out of fuel yet, but a lot of the pumps, they're running quite dry. It's a sort of wartime rationing message, and it's also hitting heavily across Southeast Asia and other countries, as well. And I've read various bits of analysis saying this is gonna push people quicker towards renewable energy, but that's not an overnight switch. And something that particularly grabbed my attention was I didn't realize that Australia is the largest exporter of LNG after the US and Qatar. So now apparently considering using that as leverage to secure energy contracts from the rest of the world at this point. So he seems to be entering into this phase of bartering for energy, from countries around the world. And, I mean, I suppose no one quite knew who was gonna be the canary in the coal mine when it came to energy and the effect that the Strait of Hormuz being throttled would have. But Australia wasn't on my bingo card, but I see why, given that it's so far away, so dependent. It has much of its own resources, but hearing that they've got so little fuel left was quite surprising to me.
Dearlove: Well, it was news to me. I mean, I knew they were quite serious producers of LNG. But I think what one's seeing, countries that are vulnerable. I mean, we went through this in a manner of speaking in Europe when Russian gas became, you know, a strategic liability with the invasion of Ukraine. And one's watching a reorganization now of the global energy market, which, okay, may be temporary, but it's gonna have a profound knock on effect for at least the next year to eighteen months.
EUROPE AND THE HUNGARIAN ELECTION
Lockwood: We also wanna talk about about Europe whilst we got because I know, obviously, you keep a very close eye on Europe. And just as I segue neatly into that, there was a story actually this morning that caught my eye that Alternative für Deutschland, the AfD, the right leaning party, has apparently started warning its party members that they shouldn't do these large scale visits to the US to try and court MAGA anymore. You know, small individual visits welcome, but larger ones are seen as suboptimal because they're trying to distance themselves from Trump. And when AfD starts to say, well, it's a bit much for us, that says something about Europe. But we do wanna talk about right leaning politics in Europe because there's a very important election coming up in Hungary of all places this weekend. Viktor Orbán seeking reelection, but could he be ousted by a former party loyalist, who goes for a surname Magyar, who could take the country in a different, more pro-EU leaning direction? Just how important is this to our international listeners, Sir Richard?
Dearlove: It's a huge deal, this election, because Orbán's government is the thorn in the side of the European Union, and he runs the most pro-Russian administration amongst the EU member countries. He's been in power for a long time. I think the current time is fifteen, sixteen years maybe. Of course, he was in office before that. And in fact, the first time he was in office, I actually met him face to face back in early 2000s when I was visiting Hungary and spent quite a lot of time with him. At that point, he was a coming politician, newly elected prime minister, and very impressive and interesting. But he hadn't, as it were, moved strongly to the right, if you can describe his politics. I mean, I think they are strongly nationalistic, but anyway, very much anti-Europe. And the crucial importance of him not being in power if he were to lose is he's blocking this massive European subvention to the Ukrainians because it has to be passed unanimously by all the member states, and he's held out. So the money is, you know, sitting in a holding account, and it's billions which will transform aspects of the Ukrainian defense budget and the Ukrainian economy. It would be the biggest intervention they've ever had. So that's why everyone is watching this election so closely. And, of course, if the election is contested, if it's close, I think then you might see a constitutional crisis with Orbán trying to hang on to power because he has a very controlling position of the media and television in Hungary and has used that politically to sustain himself in office. But the mood, I think, is swinging against him, and the polls say that Magyar is likely to win. But this isn't the easiest regime to displace in a democratic election. And maybe he shares some similarity with Trump in that respect. It's a big deal, this election. And it is a sort of bellwether about the future direction of European politics because, I mean, recently, for example, if you took the French municipal elections, although the Rassemblement National, the party of the hard right, did well, they didn't do nearly as well as people expected them to do. So maybe these would be indicators of something of a decline in the advance of the hard right in Europe, but it remains to be seen.
Lockwood: Certainly, it's a playbook that we've seen. The similarities to Trump, as you say, between Trump and Orbán are hard to ignore, and it could be a playbook that other right leaning parties in the EU, if they manage to secure power, could follow, which is, as you say there, Orbán throughout his tenure has dismantled or tried to, the media, the judiciary, the constitution, pretty much every structure that allows him to continue to govern in the way he does without being exposed, without being investigated. So if Magyar does come in, and I think he needs to come in by quite some majority in order to govern effectively as well, because you don't want one of those stymied governments at the same time. So, yep, it absolutely will be a closely watched race. It has been good wrapping up everything that's happening in the world with you today as ever, Sir Richard. So much to discuss, so much fast new moving news, especially with regards to US, Israel, Iran. There's been plenty more to talk about. So that's all we've got for today. Do join us Thursday for another exciting conversation about world events that goes beyond the usual headlines. For more conversations with leading decision makers and thinkers, do check out onedecision.com and our YouTube page where you'll find additional commentaries, conversations, explainers. I'm Rosanna Lockwood joined by Sir Richard Dearlove. Thank you for listening.
SCHEDULE ANNOUNCEMENT
Mccann: Hello, everyone. It is me, Kate McCann, and I wanted to let you know about some upcoming One Decision schedule changes. So we will continue to bring you a full interview episode every Thursday. But starting from the week of April 13, we will be moving away from our standalone Tuesday In Brief episodes. The discussions that you've enjoyed on Tuesdays will now feature in the early part of our Thursday show. One Decision is for people like you who want to go beyond the headlines, sit down with the world's top scholars, experts, key decision makers who shape global policy. And our upcoming schedule changes are aimed at bringing you a richer, more comprehensive guide to world events. We're committed to continuously developing the show in ways that suit you best. So please do keep leaving us your comments, your feedback, your thoughts on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you watch or listen to One Decision. We really appreciate your feedback, and we read all of it. So remember, this episode will be our final Tuesday in Brief. We will continue to release new extended episodes for you every single Thursday. And for more conversations with leading decision makers and thinkers, you can check out onedecision.com and subscribe to our YouTube channel where you'll find additional commentaries, conversations and explainers. Thanks very much for listening. We'll see you on Thursday.
