Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
In this episode of One Decision In Brief, hosts Kate McCann and Sir Ben Wallace, former UK Defence Secretary, break down President Donald Trump's latest moves in Venezuela, including threatening military strikes and offering Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a chance for talks. The two consider the regional consequences of military action, including Cuba's political reliance on Venezuela and the Latin American drug supply chain. Sir Ben shares how Venezuelan and Colombian drug operatives are now learning high-stakes defense technology. Plus, Kate asks Sir Ben whether the UK Prime Minister should ask Trump not to sue the BBC, and if Trump should be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mccann: Hello, and welcome to One Decision in Brief. I'm Kate McCann, and today I'm joined by Sir Ben Wallace, the former defense secretary of the UK and an expert when it comes to international affairs. He's met world leaders around the world, and he knows a thing or two about defense policy. And today, we're gonna have a chat about what Donald Trump is really up to when it comes to Venezuela, whether Trump is at the peak of his powers or a bit of a weakened man, and whether or not Ben would try to get Trump the peace prize if he was still in government. Hi, Ben. How are you?
Wallace: I'm good. How are you, Kate?
Mccann: I'm well. Thank you. I'm well. It's great to have you here this week. I'm obviously used to speaking to Sir Richard Dearlove. So it's a treat. Don't tell him I said that to have you here on the episode with us this afternoon.
Wallace: Well, I do, you know, every now and then you have to have the backup. So,
Mccann: I'd be like, That's who I am. I'm the backup. And look, there's plenty to talk about at the moment. There's lots and lots going on around the world, but I know that you have an insight into what's going on in Venezuela, which, you know, we have talked about on this podcast before about what Trump's motivation is, but things seem to have stepped up in the last couple of days. What do you think is really going on here?
TRUMP'S ENDGAME IN VENEZUELA
Wallace: Well, I think first of all, never forget that what motivates Donald Trump and MAGA is the domestic agenda, and money, those two things. And where those two things collide or overlap is where you'll find Donald Trump. And Venezuela is identified by the United States as being one of the harbors and supporters of drug smuggling and importation into the United States plus illegal migration. And if anyone outside America doesn't realize the impact fentanyl is having, they should really look at research about drug deaths and drug crime in America. It's seriously, you know, a political priority for many people. And I think President Trump has focused on Venezuela as being sort of an aider and a better. When I was in Kyiv recently, it transpired that there were lots of Colombian and Venezuelans volunteering to come and work with the drone units in Ukraine. And in fact, they were being sent by the cartels to learn their trade before they then would go back to Central America and South America. So, Donald Trump, understandably, domestic agenda. We've got to stop this. This is a pantomime villain. You know, it's no coincidence. You've got a guy who fits all the ticks or the boxes. But also the United States has interests in Venezuela. The refinery in Venezuela, the oil and gas refinery, or the oil refinery, is I think part owned by American companies or American interests. There is a potential therefore for a deal. There is also potential to put huge pressure on Cuba, which for Rubio, the secretary of state of the United States, he's a long running sore and very important to him both culturally, but also politically, because Cuba gets his energy from Venezuela. So there are three boxes that are very important to Donald Trump and the administration. And I think what we're seeing is a buildup of pressure. I don't think they're going to invade, Kate. I don't think you're going to see a massive invasion, but it's no secret. The Americans have already authorized the CIA to be involved in Venezuela. I think you could see the occupation of the refinery. You could see a small amount of, it's America's, it's in our national interest to protect our interest. So we'll occupy or capture the refinery. And that would put pressure on the regime in Caracas, but it would also help cause problems for Cuba. And lastly, Donald Trump could have another great success in his view of a deal with Maduro. And I do know within the White House, he has asked on a number of occasions how tall he is and what it would look like standing inside. Yeah. So, you know, that that's in the Donald Trump world of, you know, can I do another great deal? And deals mean worry.
Mccann: That's quite something, isn't it? When the deals the president wants come down to how tall is the guy that I may or may not stand next to. Ben, you said something really fascinating though, just there, which was about the fact that these drug cartels are choosing Ukraine. They've identified Ukraine as essentially a perfect training ground for drone operators in difficult circumstances. I mean, you know, on this podcast before we've talked at length with experts in Ukraine about how innovation there is off the charts, you know, how drones are changing the landscape in warfare, but also how Ukraine is really the sort of test bed for a lot of new technology that will be used around the world, not just by countries in war, but also by criminals. I mean, what are the Ukrainians doing to try and prevent that from happening? Because surely they don't want these people in their territory taking advantage.
Wallace: Well, I think what they've certainly done is they've decided that if any Colombian or Venezuelans want to come and fight with foreign legions, they're not in the drone unit. They have to go and fight. That'll sift why they're there. And I suspect you'll see less applicants now. But it's absolutely the case that, you know, drones effectively stop the traditional definition of air priority, right? So traditionally, a counter narcotics operation would be conducted by helicopters. You know, they'd fly into the jungle, blow up laboratories, interdict smuggling routes, but drones can be used to bring down helicopters. Drones are very successful in dropping munitions. A cartel could probably send drones to blow up the helicopters in their bases in Colombia or Venezuela. So suddenly you're giving into the hands of militia capabilities that they never would have had before. So I think it's going to change all our warfare that we face, all of it, wherever we are. Your listeners would have seen, I think it was Operation Spiderweb. If you remember the Ukrainian drones that destroyed about 40% of Russia's strategic bombers, those drones cost hundreds of dollars each.
TRUMP AT THE PEAK OF HIS POWERS?
Mccann: But Ben, I just wanted to broaden this conversation out because, you know, the issue of Venezuela is a fascinating one and you've nodded towards Marco Rubio's intentions here and Sir Richard and I have talked in the past about whether this is being led by Marco Rubio really and whether Trump is sort of dancing to his tune. There is the question of extrajudicial killings also in the region. But more broadly, when you look at the Trump administration at the moment, do you see a president at the peak of his powers and his strength? Or do you see a president who is maybe sort of casting about for a narrative? I mean, in my view, what I've seen from Donald Trump over the last couple of weeks, especially, it's been a bit all over the place. And there does now seem to be a bit of a row inside the MAGA movement about people like Marjorie Taylor Greene and others, maybe not necessarily being as loyal as Trump would want them to be?
Wallace: Well, I think inevitably, as with any politician, what you're seeing is the domestic agenda dictating his popularity and the pace. And, you know, he had lost very badly one of the governorships recently in elections. There were like three lost elections to the Democrats. If you think about it, you know, it was MAGA really that's made him capitulate on the Epstein papers. That's again predominantly a domestic story. I mean, it tipped over into us because of Prince Andrew, but fundamentally very important for his voter base. And Venezuela is all about drugs. And I think he is at the peak of his power simply because of the cycle. You know, he will have the midterms next year that'll inevitably weaken him. He'll head toward, you know, the American system's always thinking about who's next. So three years out, you know, will he, won't he be the president again? But for now I think he's going to be pushed and pulled to the domestic agenda. And I think that's what you're going to see play out in the next twelve months. And, you know, the jury's out on his tariffs and whether that has delivered economic benefit to blue collar workers or not.
THE BBC LAWSUIT AND THE PEACE PRIZE
Mccann: Yeah. I mean, he certainly seems to think it has, but I think that you're right that the jury is certainly out. Ben, before we go, if you were still inside government right now, if you were still Defence Secretary in the UK government, would you be lobbying the Prime Minister to try and get Donald Trump to pull back on his lawsuit against the BBC? He's threatening to sue the BBC, the broadcasting corporation in the UK, the sort of national broadcaster, much loved here, run into some problems recently, but Donald Trump is threatening to sue. Would you be asking the Prime Minister to have a quiet word to ask Trump not to sue? And would you be pushing politically for Trump to get the peace prize?
Wallace: Well, on the last question, no. I think Donald Trump is a man who's interested in the wedding, not the marriage. Right. So most of his peace deals either are somebody else's or they don't get followed through. Right. I mean, you have to deliver it. I remember when he went to Kim Jong un the first time around, remember he stepped across the border. After that, they increased his nuclear weapons production. So it was actually a disaster. So I'm not entirely convinced. You know, actually, if he sees these things through and we get some proper peace, then maybe, but not right now. And then on the BBC, I am a fan of the BBC. I think we need mainstream media in this very choppy world, but I've also been at the receiving end of very grubby BBC Panorama tactics, as have many of my military colleagues. And, you know, we haven't fixed that. You know, the BBC went into defense mode rather than into look, we've got a problem. We've got to fix it. You know, just firing the two, allowing two people to resign, but it's down in the gubbins of the BBC that there are big challenges and it will only change if it basically gets, you'd have to make a correction. And so I would be saying to the Prime Minister, I think you need to do an Olive branch, change in the BBC. And if you do that, then maybe you might help him out with Donald Trump. It isn't a one way thing unquestioningly. Let's ask Donald Trump not to sue the BBC. And, you know, I used to get sued all the time for government mistakes, either my own government. No. I mean, that's what governments do. Right? So, you know, nuclear test veterans, miscarriages of justice, we pay it. And the NHS all the time gets sued and pays taxpayers money to do it. Right? It isn't our money. The BBC shouldn't be immune from that. If it maligns people, is liable people, you know, if this radio show libels people, it will get sued. If the Times libels people, it gets sued. Mhmm. It's no different.
Mccann: It's true. Let's not get sued. Ben, it's been great chatting to you. Bye.
Wallace: Brilliant. Okay. Bye.
Mccann: Well, thanks very much for listening. That was One Decision in Brief, and you can find all of our full length episodes and plenty more besides on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
