Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
In this episode of One Decision In Brief, hosts Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of Britain's MI6, break down the recent meeting in Washington D.C. between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. They assess the ramifications of Trump pulling back from his original stance on supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, the reaction from European leaders, and what all of this means for Ukraine. Plus, they discuss the prospective summit in Budapest, Hungary with Trump and Vladimir Putin and whether that meeting could lead to peace negotiations. Finally, they examine the latest case of alleged Chinese spying in the UK, what this reveals about the Chinese threat, and what it could mean for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's political leadership.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mccann: Hello and welcome to One Decision In Brief. I'm Kate McCann and I'm joined today by my co-host Sir Richard Dearlove. Hi Sir Richard. We are going to be discussing Ukraine today. Ukraine and Russia, and crucially, intervention of President Trump. There have been lots of talk about Tomahawk missiles, but it looks like the Ukrainian president has been disappointed. So Richard, I mean, was one of those meetings where there was a huge amount of hope and a lot of people with fingers crossed that Donald Trump was going to follow through this time, because I think it's fair to say that he has been seeming a bit more pro-Ukraine than he has in the past of late.
Dearlove: Hi Kate. Great to see you. Yeah, agree. But, you know, he's material if he's not. And I think those of us who are optimistic based on his recent comments, which seem to be in favor of Zelensky in Ukraine, are really rather concerned now by another meeting, which clearly showed bad temper, sort of reported bust-ups, pushing the maps off the table, and the rather sort of threatening Trump. I'm I'm just it seems to me that having had all this praise in relation to the Gaza ceasefire, he now wants another coup in terms of stopping a conflict. And maybe, you know, that was the motivation driving his behavior. But, I think Zelensky must be pretty alarmed because he seems to go absolutely nowhere with this discussion of Tomahawks, and it's probably the original speculation that they might provide Tomahawk missiles that seem to have brought Putin back to talking to Trump again because the reporting indicated the initiative came from the Russian side, and then they agreed this meeting in supposedly in Budapest.
Mccann: Yeah. I was really surprised by you. You mentioned the reports, and there were some reports in the British press about Donald Trump swearing and shouting, and you mentioned pushing the maps off the table. We know that, I mean, that would be quite unusual behaviour from the president, but it does seem to have been a bad-tempered meeting. I think afterwards Trump described it as 'cordial', which is pretty telling, I think, in and of itself. Do you think that President Putin played his hand particularly well this time around? I mean, he had a phone call with Trump. We know because we've been told by Trump himself that a lot of that phone call with Putin was about talking about trade between Russia and The US when the war with Ukraine is over, almost sort of playing to Trump's, you know, sweet spot in that he likes to talk about trade, likes to talk about deals, he likes to talk about what would be in it for the American people. Do you think that phone call swung things against President Zelensky in a way that maybe the Ukrainians just didn't see coming?
Dearlove: That's quite possible, and any, you know, delay that Putin achieves in, as it were, an increase in American support for Zelensky must be a plus for Putin. And he seems to be able to play that card on a pretty regular basis, and it seems we have to go around this circuit where Putin, you know, persuades Trump to act in a particular way that lasts for a period of time, then Putin doesn't do anything in Ukraine to sort of draw back. He continues hitting civilian targets. Trump gets cross again and then maybe looks as though he's veering back in favor of Zelensky. So how you assess the situation now after this? Well, it it it wasn't an aborted meeting, particularly if you then called it courteous afterwards or whatever, but it it didn't seem to have gone at all well, and Zelensky gets nothing.
Mccann: Yeah. And this is this is the point, and I suppose the problem for the Ukrainians is, you know, how do you do you proceed with a strategy towards Donald Trump, who, let's be frank, is playing a decisive role here, at least insofar as anybody can. When you go into that meeting, President Zelensky, thinking, you know, there's a real chance here, real opportunity that the Americans are going to come on side and show some political muscle, if even if, you know, those Tomahawk missiles would not be the deciding factor in ending this war, it would have been a hugely significant political move. You walk in thinking, well, if that's not possible, then look, maybe there are some other weapons that we can secure. Maybe there's some warm words we can secure, maybe even just to have Donald Trump saying, you know, I'm here with Zelensky and Russia needs to stop. That would have been a huge moment. He must Zelensky have walked into that meeting thinking even, you know, even in the worst case scenario, you'd secure some support. And yet he walks out, the meetings ended after two and a half hours fairly abruptly on Donald Trump's part. There's a suggestion from the American side now that, you know, Zelensky should just end the war where it is along the lines that are currently drawn and be happy with that. I think Donald Trump even said something like, let them both say they've won, President Putin and President Zelensky, and just be done with it. I mean, ceding that kind of territory would be surely impossible for Zelensky.
Dearlove: Yeah. It would cost him his political life after all the suffering that the Ukrainians have been through and the resistance they put up. It's just so unrealistic. They're not gonna fold their cards and walk away. I mean, in my book, having seen firsthand what the attitude of the Ukrainians is like on the ground, even without significant support from Europe, they're gonna go on fighting. They're not going to fold their cards. They can't constitutionally give up land. Zelensky can't do that. It it, you know, it it would be the end of his political life. So it's very hard to see where this goes. I mean, maybe we will end up with a frozen conflict, but I think the preconditions for that yet don't exist. And, I think one of the problems in Trump's approach is he feels he can wave a magic wand, and then you get a solution, and you can see with the Gaza ceasefire the complexities of the situation. And, okay, he takes the first step, makes the big announcement, and then all the complexity underneath. Is it serious enough to blow the whole thing out of the water? Is there enough initiative there for some sort of progress? But it seems to me we're miles off any sort of progress towards a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia. The preconditions just don't exist. Don't you agree?
Mccann: Yeah, I do. I I sort of find it baffling, and I don't really I think it's very difficult to see where this as you say, I think it's very difficult to see where this goes from here, and I think it's clear from the reaction of European leaders that they feel similarly. I mean, I think Keir Starmer, The UK Prime Minister, had suggested working with America to draft some kind of peace deal which was along the same lines of Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza. I part of me wondered whether and this might be a bit of a stretch, don't know what you think I wondered whether Trump had been frustrated in that meeting, because the timing of it, you know, there were a lot of reports at the same time that Trump was meeting Zelensky about, you know, the peace plan in Gaza is failing, and Trump's, you know, Trump's plan is falling apart, you know, Israel, the IDF are back at it sort of in a very similar way to the way they were before, there were questions about aid getting in, you know, I wondered whether or not sort of lost a bit of heart almost and wondered, because, you know, a lot of this stuff relies on Donald Trump putting the effort in. He's got a lot of domestic problems to deal with, and he's spending a lot of time and political capital abroad. There's a part of me that wondered whether he just felt, you know, what's the point in this? None of you are listening to me.
Dearlove: That's that's an astute observation because I think, you know, he he could well be feeling excessive frustration, and after all, the the guy is 79. Yeah. You know, he's no spring chicken. And the pressure he must be under, both with these two situations, which are brutal conflicts. Yeah. Maybe it's an expression of, you know, he just lost it and thought, ah, to hell with this. You know? I wish these bloody people would fall into line and agree with me. And and you you you could see how that might happen, particularly with his great, you know, Gaza performance suddenly looking as though it might be falling to pieces. You you actually could well be right. I think this shows some feminine intuition.
Mccann: And they didn't even give him the peace prize. I quite enjoyed it when Trump said, well, maybe next year I'll have more luck. He's obviously got his he's not going to give it up. I mean, in all seriousness, the next stage of this does seem to be another face-to-face meeting with President Putin, and there is talk about this potential meeting happening in Hungary. There is a question about whether or not Putin could even fly into the EU. I mean, planes are banned from EU airspace, they're banned from from US airspace, but EU airspace too. Is there a way that this kind of thing could be coordinated in your experience? I mean, would be quite some it would be quite some feat, wouldn't it, to see President Putin in in Budapest?
Dearlove: Yeah. It would. It raises all sorts of problems. It raises I'm sure that Orbán would find a way around it because he would want the prestige of hosting the meeting, And maybe they'll come to some agreement in Brussels that will shade over the legal international issues and just allow him to come and go. But it it it it's not straightforward. It's not straightforward at all. Maybe he could travel overland. I don't know. I mean, they that that's that's a possibility, I suppose.
Mccann: I mean, Orbán, as you say, who is Putin's closest ally in the EU, has made clear that he would move political mountains to make this happen. But how do you think this would play out for European leaders? I mentioned Keir Starmer's reaction to what happened with Donald Trump, almost as sort of, you know, trying to appease Trump and ease him back into seeking this peace deal with Putin. Do you think other EU leaders would be comfortable with President Putin in Budapest? Would that be something that they would push back on?
Dearlove: Well, if it's a repeat of Alaska, I think they'd all be pretty fed up, but if we if the if it actually the meeting actually produced something positive, I don't think any of them would have the willpower or, you know, they wouldn't have the motivation to strongly object. So I think it it it maybe depends on what's happened. But I I mean, let's say the meeting is in two to three weeks time. What's Trump? Sorry. What's Putin gonna do to Ukraine in the meantime? You know, what's he gonna do immediately after the meeting? You know, the last time they met, there was no benefit came out of it at all for Ukraine as far as one could see. And Europe as a whole will be looking for, as it were, the balance of some advantage playing out to Zelensky and not the balance playing out exclusively to Putin. The trouble is that you you just can't be confident that Trump is seeing it that way himself.
CHINA AND THE UK SPY CASE
Mccann: Well, yeah, especially after the meeting that happened with Zelensky, I think that will be a huge concern for European leaders, is essentially even trusting where Trump's head is at. It's such a good point. We will keep an eye out on that meeting, and of course, you know, we'll bring you updates as soon as we get them in terms of what happens with that meeting, that potential meeting between Putin and Trump may be in Hungary. So Richard, while I have you here, I have to ask you because I know that you have very strong views on China, and for people who've been following it, there's been a real 'hoo is one word for it' about Chinese influence, Chinese spies, alleged Chinese spying in The UK. There was an attempt to bring a court case around this which was dropped because there was a sort of decision made by the Crown Prosecution Service in The UK, they are the ones who work out whether a trial should go forward, whether it would be successful. It was dropped on the basis that that would not be successful despite, as we have seen in the last couple of days, the publishing of some documents which suggest that there was a significant amount of evidence in this case which could have gone forward. I have to ask you, the government here in The UK has changed its position a number of times. It seems to have gone back and forth over political influence, political meetings, it denied there were meetings that took place, it now appears that those meetings did take place. In your view, zooming out a little bit here, how much trouble is the UK government in, and how much of a threat do you think China is? How worried should we be about China in this context?
Dearlove: Well, it's a major threat and, you know, if we have more time, I can explain that. And I don't think there's any doubt about that. There's any question about it. And, you know, I would direct people to an article which I think appeared online for the Spectator, which explains very clearly both why China is such a problem, not just to The UK, to the West. And the Spectator actually is a magazine, hasn't been particularly bullish about this issue. It's written in some quite sympathetic stuff about China in the past. So that's one point. I think the second point is that the more that one learns about what happened in relation to the spy case, I'm afraid I've pretty much come to the conclusion, and I have gone to this huge detail, that it looks like appeasement of China by the government. It looks like a program of initiatives which is, you know, trying to, you know, create a closer relationship with China for reasons which are expressed as being, you know, economic to do with trade and business. And if that's the case, it's outrageous, really. And I think a lot of people are deeply concerned about it, and the government, I think, are in big trouble. And and it's gone a little bit unnoticed, but the Intelligence and Security Committee in Parliament is a pretty significant outfit. And although it works within the ring of secrecy, it does publish its reports. It's now decided it's gonna look into this, and it'll do it reasonably quickly, I think. And that's a multi-party committee. It includes, it would have a majority of members that are Labour because it reflects the composition of Parliament. I think that could be a very, very difficult moment for the government when this report comes out.
Mccann: Do you think the Prime Minister's in trouble here?
Dearlove: Yeah, I do actually. And, my one or two of my very savvy, journalistic friends who I'm not gonna identify, in this particular context, but they say he's in real trouble, that this is more than a piece of string being pulled on. It's gonna turn it could turn into a major crisis for him personally.
Mccann: Wow. And that would be quite something, especially, if the timing coincides with some pretty bad local election results coming in May.
Dearlove: So Richard, always great to speak to you. Great talking to you Kate and yeah, some interesting topics we've covered today.
Mccann: Yeah, plenty to be getting on with when it comes to foreign affairs and thank you for listening. That is it for this week's One Decision in Brief. Of course, be sure to stay tuned. Our regularly scheduled episode will be out this Thursday. It's a really interesting conversation. We talked a little bit about it here today, but we'll get much more into the detail when it comes to the states of the Russian military, the Russian economy, whether Russia always needs a war just to exist, and potentially what happens if President Putin is removed. You really don't want to miss that conversation with our guest, Mark Galeotti. You can get that in your feed on Thursday. And please do leave us comments or questions or feedback that you might have about the episodes that you hear and any guests that you would like to hear on the podcast. You can visit 1decision.com, our YouTube page, and, of course, leave your comments on whichever podcast platform you get your accent. I'm Kate McCann, and Sir Richard is joining me today. Thanks very much for listening.
