Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
In this week's One Decision In Brief, hosts Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of Britain's MI6, sit down to discuss the latest in foreign policy including President Donald Trump's recent 90-day tariff pause with China - will the start of negotiations bring a lasting deal? Also, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposes to meet directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for peace talks, and why Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, used a Russian interpreter in the Kremlin. Plus, how Russian propaganda is selling a different message of a tissue at a world leaders' meeting.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mccann: Hello and welcome to One Decision in Brief. I'm Kate McCann here with Sir Richard Dearlove and this past week, well, there's been a lot of news on the go. We saw China and the US meet for a successful tariff negotiation. What does it mean though in practice and where do they go here with a ninety day pause? We'll also be talking about the latest in those Russia Ukraine talks. It seems like President Trump has forced the Ukrainians around the table for face to face talks, but the big question is, will President Putin actually turn up? And finally, we're gonna be talking about a really fascinating story, the fact that a Trump envoy used a Russian interpreter in talks about Ukraine. Yes, really. Broke with long standing protocol by not employing his own interpreter during those high level meetings with Vladimir Putin. Some really big questions about that. So let's get into it. So Richard, shall we start with China and the US? Because it feels like Donald Trump, one way or another, has at least got some kind of movement. I mean, it's not a trade deal quite, is it?
CHINA AND THE US TARIFF NEGOTIATIONS
Dearlove: No, it's not a trade deal yet, but it is the start of a negotiation. And I think when he claims he's done these fantastic trade deals, maybe there are one or two elements that have been sorted out. But what it means, I think, is they've created a platform for further negotiation and exchange. Look, I'm not particularly surprised that the Chinese have come to the table so quickly because I think in China when you start closing down factories or when you start filling warehouses with goods and there's an interruption to the process of economic exchange, the social consequences can be felt very, very quickly. And we don't really think about this to the same extent in the West because we don't see ourselves as living in a sort of brittle political and social climate. But I think the Chinese, although they've projected an image that is we're on top of this, we hold the initiative, I think that's just Chinese propaganda frankly. I think they're desperate to have a negotiation. And, wow, you know, Trump's brought them to the table in a way that would have been very difficult without the background of tariffs, in my view.
Mccann: In that ninety days now, what do you expect to see? Do you think a full trade deal is possible between the two sides?
Dearlove: I don't think you'll get a full trade deal in ninety days. I think you'll get the primary elements of what a trade deal is going to look like, but there will be columns of production or whatever you like to call them, which will take much longer to sort out. I think it establishes a framework for ongoing discussion and negotiation. Look, we should never have let China into the WTO on grounds that equated it to a Western democracy. We've allowed our trade with China to become furiously imbalanced, particularly in the case of the United States. And I'm not in disagreement with the policy of trying to make that relationship more balanced. Trump's methodology is pretty brutal and pretty offensive politically and ramps up tension and has all sorts of domestic consequences on the stock market and all the other things that we know about. But I wonder if the Chinese would have come to the table that quickly if Trump hadn't been quite so brutal.
Mccann: Yeah, maybe allowed the status quo to continue. I mean, you mentioned the impact of this kind of policy on China, on domestic communities in China. I mean, the domestic impact of Trump's tariffs in the US has been really significant. What do you think was the driver for him pushing for this deal with China? Do you think it was the impact of Musk and others around him who really are worried about their manufacturing base in China? Or was it that sort of domestic impact of inflation and policies that affects the communities that vote for Trump?
Dearlove: Well, I think the reverberations through the financial markets, yeah, make Trump sit up and take notice. So there is an incentive. But what I'm saying is that there's a huge difference between the dislocation economically in the States and the ability of society to bounce along with that. And okay, it's a big discussion in the media, it's on TV every day, there are local consequences which are tough, but society in the States is not going to fall apart because of tariffs on Chinese trade. The other side of that coin in China is much much much more serious because social stability in China is tied up with the rate of Chinese growth and economic performance. And the Chinese leadership are neurotic about social cohesion and loss of control. So I think all I'm saying is that in an autocracy as rigid as China, the Chinese have real problems when they look at this from the perspective of Beijing. I mean, China is a huge country. Keeping control of it from Beijing is a massive challenge and a task which is the focus of a lot of communist party activity. There isn't an equivalence because of the dislocation between these social and political systems. But on the other hand, there are huge economic pressures on Trump.
Mccann: There's a lot of showmanship around this, isn't there? You have to agree, not on the Chinese side, but on the Trump side. So I mean, do you think that President Trump has landed on something here? Because you talk about the fact that there is a risk in China of domestic unrest, essentially, that Trump is maybe exploiting or that China is having to bow to that pressure. Are we looking at something similar in Russia with what President Trump is doing to force President Putin to come to the table? Is there an element of the same thing there?
Dearlove: I don't think there's the same element in Russia because I don't think Russia has that type of social volatility. I don't think you can make a comparison. The Chinese leadership have always been really super sensitive about social dislocation. I wouldn't say that the Russians share that sensitivity in the same sort of way.
RUSSIA, UKRAINE, AND THE ISTANBUL TALKS
Mccann: So what's going on then with Trump and Putin? Because I thought they were best mates. They were gonna strike this advantageous deal between the two of them, and it was all gonna be good. And it seems like that has fallen away a bit over the last couple of weeks.
Dearlove: I think it's definitely fallen away, because I think that Putin has made Trump realize that, okay, he wants a deal on Ukraine, but only absolutely on his own terms. And I've certainly said on the podcast before that there's no evidence yet that Putin's made a single concession in his Ukrainian policy, whereas we all know that Zelensky's not got much choice. So Zelensky says, yes, I'll go to Istanbul for ceasefire negotiations. The key thing now is whether Putin will turn up in Istanbul face to face with Zelensky. I mean, my feeling is he's not gonna do that. And I think Trump, in a way, is running out of patience. I think there's clear evidence that people like Rubio may be much further down the track in terms of running out of patience. Ukraine has stopped Russia's westward progress. And despite the fact they're making little advances, really the Ukrainians are holding the line. I mean, the irony is they've done it for the rest of Europe. And if you look at it in a much bigger context, this is symptomatic of Russia's decline, really. And Putin likes to say he holds all the cards. Not really. He's running out of cards. He doesn't hold many. I mean, the last few cards he holds are the threat of nuclear war. Is he really going to go into nuclear war with NATO? I don't think so.
Mccann: I was speaking to somebody earlier this week who was saying, you know, look, Europe and America thinks, and Donald Trump even more so than most, thinks in time chunks of an hour, two hours. I mean, Trump is posting on Truth Social every five minutes. It's a different thing altogether. You know, the way his brain works, it's all over the place. But leaders like Xi in China and Putin in Russia, they don't think in terms of minutes or hours. They think in decades. And so, you know, while this for President Putin, this is just one stage of a much bigger, much longer term plan. The question is what happens next? What happens in five years' time? What happens in ten years' time? And that will be one of the questions, I suspect, that those in Europe, particularly those close to the Russian border, will be asking themselves.
Dearlove: Yeah, this is all about the long term security of Europe, particularly Central Europe, with huge sensitivity in Poland, Finland, Baltic Republics, as to how this is going to play out, but actually my own feeling is that despite our concern and worries about Trump's unpredictability, NATO's actually in a pretty good place because the Ukrainians have illustrated in three years of war that the Russian military is not what we originally thought it was. The Russians have made a real hash of this. They were meant to be running Ukraine within six weeks of their original invasion, three weeks after they invaded three years ago. It's actually pretty catastrophic for them. And if you look at the whole perspective of, let's say, take it from the Cold War, I mean, I've been thinking a lot about the start of my own career in 1966 and what has happened to Russia in that period. Divided Germany, Germany reunited. Russia has been on a back foot. Loss of Eastern Europe, all those communist countries, loss of the Baltic Republics, and now loss of Ukraine. That's the existential, it's the absolute issue for the Russian identity. And they're going to lose Ukraine or they're going to lose a good chunk of it even if they hold on to 20% of the territory. And I've been opposed to the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, but I think we're reaching almost a point of inevitability where eventually we're going to have to, as it were, face up to it and probably let Ukraine into NATO as well.
Mccann: What's changed your mind?
Dearlove: I think it's the Russian intransigence and Russia's refusal to negotiate any sort of future for Ukraine. If they're that blocked in their minds, you know, we have to, as it were, add Ukraine to NATO. And in a way, that's going to be a massive bastion against further Russian expansion.
WITKOFF AND THE RUSSIAN INTERPRETER
Mccann: We've mentioned the change in tone from Donald Trump, but there is still a sense that those around Trump are potentially more open to believing or signing themselves up to Russia's version of events. What do you make of Steve Witkoff and the interpreter?
Dearlove: I just cannot believe that Witkoff can go to Russia and use a Russian interpreter and not take his own man. It just is mind boggling. I mean, it's naivety for a start because you need to be in an authoritative, controlling position when you're putting across your own case in negotiation. I went to Russia quite a lot. I had the use of the best simultaneous British Russian interpreter, a man called Tony Bishop, I think he was called. He was extraordinary. He was a brilliant interpreter, plus the fact he had a very very good understanding of Russian mentality, thinking, you know, he could pick up vibes. I mean, he was an amazing ally to have with me. He wasn't actually a member of my service, but he was the best interpreter in the UK. The Russians really respected him because he was so experienced and so knowledgeable. And to have him with me in Russia in some pretty difficult circumstances was an amazing experience and gave you a certain reassurance which you would have lacked. Some of the English interpreters the Russians provided were gruesome. You wouldn't have trusted them for five to ten minutes, let alone used them. You're putting all the cards in your opponent's hands. I just don't really get that at all. It shows a complete naivety. This isn't business. This is national security, for God's sake.
THE MACRON "COCAINE" PROPAGANDA
Mccann: Well, if Witkoff was naive to Russia's true intentions, President Macron certainly isn't now. We should end on this because I thought this was an amazing tale. I don't know if you will have seen the pictures over the weekend of Macron and Starmer and others around the table. They were talking, of course, about Ukraine, about what should happen next. And there was a tissue on the table. It was like a photo opportunity. There was a tissue on the table next to Macron. And he obviously doesn't want a tissue next to him. It looks a bit weird. So he grabs this tissue and sort of hides it in his palm. And the Russians have been suggesting it was a bag of cocaine that he wanted to hide. And they've put out all this propaganda about the cocaine train and about how all the leaders were just, you know, having a massive session on the train together.
Dearlove: I hadn't seen that. That's ridiculous. I mean, that shows actually in a way that just shows how desperate the Russians are. That sort of propaganda is completely ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.
Mccann: But it shows the lengths to which they're willing to go. Yeah, evidently not beneath them. Sir Richard, it's been great to chat.
Dearlove: Yeah, great Kate. Look forward to our next session.
Mccann: Thank you Sir Richard and thank you to our listeners. We'll be back this Thursday with our regularly scheduled episode. Of course, be sure to check us out on our social media and you can subscribe to our YouTube channel for exclusive content such as explainers and interviews with world leaders. I'm Kate McCann. Thanks for listening.
