Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
In this episode of One Decision In Brief, hosts Sir Richard Dearlove, former MI6 Chief, and Christina Ruffini unpack Donald Trump’s new trade deal with the European Union, French President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to recognize Palestinian statehood, and the growing international backlash over Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Raffini: Hello, and welcome to One Decision in Brief. I'm Christina Raffini joined today, of course, by my cohost, Richard Dearlove. I think we should talk about the new deal with Trump and the EU. It looks like they've finally made a deal on tariffs. It's gonna be a 15% import tax for EU products coming to the US. The EU has also agreed to purchase $750,000,000,000 in American energy products and invest 600,000,000,000 in the US on top of, you know, existing expenditures. What they're already doing, they're gonna open up markets to trade with the US at zero tariffs. So there's gonna be zero tariffs on US products going into the EU, and they're also said they're gonna purchase, quote, vast amounts of military equipment according to Trump. I think we have to tip our MAGA caps to Trump.
THE TRUMP-EU TRADE DEAL
Dearlove: He is the first person in a very long time to get the better of the EU in trade negotiations. They are notoriously difficult to deal with, and they folded their cards on the threat of high tariffs from the United States. So, and Trump, if you look at it in terms of the detail that we know, the US has got a good deal. Look. The EU, it doesn't say it, but it's a very effective trading cartel. It doesn't necessarily restrict trade through tariffs. It does it through veterinary regulations. It does it through standardization of products. It does it through health and safety. It does it through all sorts of tricks, and it keeps a lot of trade that it doesn't want to conduct out of its cartel. So, I mean, Trump has actually played a blinder, and he's definitely got the upper hand. There's no question. But there are still a lot of detail to be sorted out. You know, wine and spirits, which is quite an important factor for the EU. Pharmaceuticals hasn't been covered, and I think there are other bits and pieces still. So it's a framework, but the important thing is it gives pretty clear picture as to how the future's gonna develop for those companies that have big trade, you know, with the United States.
Raffini: But it's very interesting to see what's happened. It's not a great deal. 15% is still pretty significant on goods. You know, when I talk to foreign ministers and trade ministers, it's the uncertainty of all of this that is really pulling markets for a loop even more than the tariffs themselves. Do you think they thought, alright, let's just get this settled and then deal with the reality we can grapple with rather than trying to jump constant uncertainty?
Dearlove: I think already Macron has criticized the deal pretty fiercely, which isn't particularly surprising. And, of course, bearing in mind, the process of ratification within the EU is pretty complicated. I mean, I think it'll have to go through, but it will be at least a year, I would have thought, or longer before it's fully gone through all the process of national and EU ratification. But, anyway, it removes a big element of uncertainty. It removes the threat of a trade war, which would have been, of course, hugely damaging.
FRANCE AND PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD
Raffini: And, you know, it's not done on the US end either. It's a meeting. It's something that's been announced. But as we've seen, nothing's done until it's done. And he could always reverse it if it's not cemented. He could reverse it even if it is cemented. So, you know, the other thing that's been in the news a lot, you mentioned Macron earlier. He's obviously got his own internal political considerations, and so he's announced that France is to recognize Palestinian statehood. He's gonna announce it during the UN General Assembly in September. I'm wondering what your thoughts are on this because my thought is no matter how you feel about this issue in itself, there really isn't, and this is part of the problem, there isn't a clear leadership apparatus in Palestine right now. This has been the crux of this whole discussion is there is no day one plan for if and when Israel ever leaves. So what are they recognizing? I mean, you know, there's a picture of them handing a certificate to, I think it was Abbas, but I don't know what that gets you.
Dearlove: Well, I guess it's recognizing the principle of Palestinian statehood. And the likely solution is some sort of deal with the Palestinian Authority. But, I mean, that's still a long way off. And how it applies to Gaza, of course, is still a mystery because we aren't anywhere near a settlement. But I think taking a slightly, well, a cynical view, a lot of it is to do with Macron's domestic political situation. I mean, France has a massive Muslim diaspora. There's a very significant impact. All of the great French cities, but particularly in the South, where the influence of the Muslim community can sway a vote. And, I mean, we all know Macron is now, I think, the most unpopular French president ever. He is being challenged, of course, by the French right. And this young man, since Marine Le Pen's been legally, or looks as though she's gonna be legally disqualified. You've got this very switched on young guy called Bardella, who will probably be the Rassemblement National presidential candidate. And, you know, I think Macron's worrying about the political future of the center and the center right as opposed to the far right.
Raffini: Which is performing so strongly in the polls, and this is a big deal. Well, and also, if you're looking at a time when the EU is trying to kinda get Trump on side, right, like, it's almost shooting yourself in the foot if you're looking at it, you know, not from an ethical standpoint, from a strictly strategic standpoint. You know, Macron has been one of those people who's been very good at getting Trump on board in a lot of situations, including Ukraine. And it seems to me this could compromise the goals he's trying to make other places. You know, you've got Rubio coming out and calling it a reckless decision. The timing on this is interesting. And as you're watching the French population move to the right, you know, Democrats here in the US made the same strategic error. They moved too far to the left to counter that, and that's how they lost an election. And I'm not sure if you're trying to pull a population back to a centrist left or centrist right vote that this is the way to do it.
Dearlove: Yeah. But I think what it's another reflection of is the reassertion of nation state identity within the European Union. So for all sorts of reasons to do with European security, the threat from Russia, and the way that the EU has, as it were, not evolved over the last five years, you've got much more emphasis on the behavior of nation states, particularly the big ones. So Germany, Merz, being more independent of Brussels than it's been for a very long time historically, changing its, for example, its debt rules in order to cover weapons purchase. And similarly, you've got France much more inclined to do its own thing and not conform to some EU multinational agenda. So I think it's a reflection of the reassertion of nation state identity and the ability of the major European nations to act a little more independently of Brussels than they've done in the past. So there are, I think there are various angles that you can look at this initiative from.
Raffini: So we've got France, you know, recognizing Palestine, and then Trump and Starmer just met. And it seems like Trump has said about Starmer recognizing Palestine, quote, I'm not gonna take a position. I don't mind him taking a position. I'm looking to get people fed right now. That's the number one position because you have a lot of starving people. I mean, that's very interesting. And Trump has said he doesn't agree with Netanyahu after the Israeli prime minister said nobody is starving in Gaza.
Dearlove: Well, that's fascinating. But if Trump's moved his ground and is prepared, you know, to let individual European nations or not sort of object, then, you know, we are in the process of seeing a shift in policy. But let's see how that plays out. It might be being somewhat exaggerated, and it may just be more to do with aid, you know, stopping the suffering of the Palestinian population than a full scale diplomatic recognition. I'd prefer to see this in detail in slower time before one draws a firm conclusion, but it is an interesting nuance shift away from what Rubio has previously said.
Raffini: I agree. And it'll be interesting to see how this very tumultuous relationship between Trump and Bibi plays out. You know, if Bibi has annoyed him enough, this could be, in effect, a reaction to that. Right? Because he feels like if Netanyahu has not given him what he wants, his reaction is always to do, you know, he's a political bully. Right? Sounds a bit like Zelensky in Ukraine all over again with new characters.
Dearlove: Well, there's a consistency. There's a pattern here, isn't there?
Raffini: I think the thing is, yeah, what I've said to people is it's not usual diplomacy. But to your point, there is a pattern. He is a bit predictable. You know, he's not opaque. It's very obvious what levers to pull and how to pull them. You just have to figure out how to do that without losing your mind or, you know, the ethical ground underneath you. But transactional politics is pretty straightforward. Yeah. Well, you know, we're getting used to the word deal.
Dearlove: I thought it was very interesting when he was talking to the EU commissioner. You know, he said, well, this is a great deal. I mean, politicians don't usually talk about deals. I know he does. It's true. It's entered into the political vocabulary in spades. But just going back to the EU issue, because I think it is important. I mean, this is really, it's more about geopolitics than it is about economics, really. It is a big deal, and I mean that in the sense of it's important. It's going to shift the nature of the relationship between the US and Europe, probably in a direction which in some respects is quite positive for Europe.
GAZA'S HUNGER CRISIS
Raffini: The other thing I think we need to talk about is just, you know, the images we're seeing coming out of Gaza, the starvation, the impact this is having on the domestic population, and then the media spin that's coming out of, I mean, listen, every side is unfortunately using this tragedy to their advantage. But I was listening to an NPR report where Israeli military officials were essentially blaming it on the UN saying that they can't distribute the food. The UN is saying they can't distribute food in areas that are being bombed and when people are being shot at. And then another Israeli official I heard this morning saying that these images out of Gaza, of course, heartbreaking, but basically calling them fake, saying they're not real. This is not really happening. I was surprised by calling it fake news that that's the tactic that they want to take with this.
Dearlove: Well, there's no question that the Israelis are losing the media battle. What's happening in Gaza has been immensely damaging to their reputation globally and internationally. So they have reacted to it by, you know, opening up the borders to send in these additional, well, new aid supplies. I think the Israelis suddenly realized rather late in the day that they've gotta do something to adjust, you know, their image and show that, you know, they're not, as it were, driving the civilian population to starvation. So I don't know. It's so difficult to judge, and I think you've gotta look at everything very carefully. But there's no question, there is a major problem with the civilian population, which has been caused by the lack of aid. And there are clearly a lot of families and children in particular who are suffering badly.
Raffini: Yeah. I mean, I think it's like eight organizations that I've worked with that I trust, right, including, you've got this letter from 115 groups, including Doctors Without Borders, Mercy Corps, Save the Children, basically saying their own relief workers are starving within the country, right? These are people that they've dealt with, and their own staff are unable to feed their own families, and they're unable to feed their staff. And that's really a problem. I mean, medical care has been shrinking and shrinking, but now you've got doctors reportedly passing out in wards because they're not getting enough nutrition. I don't see how this benefits Israeli goals in the long term, because as you said, even if some of it's being manipulated, this is not a media optics war they're going to win. And I don't see what the plan is. They cannot occupy this space forever. They've said they don't want to, other than just completely decimating the population. What is the goal here?
Dearlove: Well, I guess the goal is to rub out Hamas militarily, but whatever it is, it's a mess. You know, a ceasefire is desperately required. And I think the way that the Palestinian population has been, you know, exploited in this conflict is catastrophic.
Raffini: Richard, always a pleasure. It was good talking to you, and I'll see you again next week. That's it for this week's One Decision in Brief. Of course, be sure to stay tuned for our regularly scheduled episode this Thursday. And for more exclusive content with world leaders, visit 1decision.com and our YouTube page. I'm Christina Raffini. Thanks for listening.
Dearlove: Great chatting and look forward to our next discussion.
