Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
In this bonus episode, Christina Ruffini sits down with co-host Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of Britain's MI6, to discuss how President Donald Trump's second term in office has created a global response seen in elections worldwide. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's recent election victory will extend his tenure as his platform works against growing right-wing populism. Meanwhile, victories in recent Romanian and UK council elections have proven an interest in nationalist, right-wing politics, mirroring many of President Trump's politics. Plus, Sir Richard shares his insight on the Trump administration's policy shift on Ukraine and working with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Episode produced by Situation Room Studios. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
COLD OPEN
Dearlove: People are talking about the Trump effect. This isn't a protest vote. It's an earthquake. And they will be the most important party politically over the next couple two, three, four years.
INTRODUCTION
Raffini: Welcome in. I'm Christina Raffini here, of course, with co-host Sir Richard Dearlove. And, Sir Richard, let's get to it. We're just gonna do a quick run through of some of the headlines this week. First of all, starting with the elections in Australia. I wanna point out we're both wearing our very appropriate Australian denim shirts here today. It's a bank holiday, so I'm very relaxed, and I've got my favorite denim shirt on. Yeah. I wanted to check-in with you because there have been a lot of elections lately, but two that really stand out, especially regarding what's going on here in the US, are obviously Carney's win in Canada. It's a Liberal party candidate there. And now we have something similar happening in Australia. What's your take on the Liberal victory Down Under?
ELECTIONS IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA
Dearlove: Well, it was a surprise if you look at the way the polls were indicating the outcome, but the polls, I think, turned in Albanese's favor in the run up the last few days. I do understand that Peter Dutton, who's the leader of the opposition, fought a pretty inept campaign and made some serious faux pas, which seemed to have affected his position in the polls. And then on top of that, people are talking about the Trump effect. Although I'm not sure that the Trump effect would have had that much resonance in Australia, but supposedly, it somehow did. Everybody's saying it's a surprise result and that Albanese has done miles better. I don't think he's quite got an overall majority, but a much, much bigger return than people expected. And I think he has to rely on one or two votes, several votes from smaller parties, but they're favorable to his political position is my understanding.
Raffini: I have some friends down in Australia, and the things that they talk about are prices were already really expensive. Stuff is really it's really expensive to go out to eat in Australia. The Australian dollar is not very strong. And I think tariffs are just really wigging people out. You know, I follow a bunch of small businesses for arts or fashion or things like that on Instagram, and I can't tell you how many of them are based in the UK or overseas. And they've all put up slates recently saying they're no longer shipping to the United States, and they're not sure what that's gonna do to their businesses. And I think that just has a ripple effect. I mean, are you seeing that in the UK? I seem to follow oddly a lot of UK businesses, and all of a sudden, I'm seeing a lot of them stopping shipping to the US until the tariffs are figured out.
Dearlove: Yeah. I think there's an uncertainty about that. I don't think we're quite so affected by it because, okay, we were covered by the initial general tariff for everybody, but it's not been further extended. And there's a sense of optimism in the UK that we'll do some sort of trade deal with the US, but it's early days yet, and we haven't got to that. But you're right about the cost of living. I think forcing up cost of living is a big deal. And I haven't been in Australia recently, but certainly, when I go to the States, I'm shocked by the costs there.
Dearlove: And I always used to think of the States in relation to the UK as a bargain, but it isn't any longer. Rather, the reverse, it's very expensive.
Raffini: It's really expensive. Someone was just posting that not even cocktails, mocktails, the ones without the alcohol in DC have now hit the $18 mark.
Dearlove: Oh, it's an $18 mark. That's not a sign of the apocalypse. I don't know what is.
Raffini: Oh my God, that's incredible. It's interesting to me. When we were in Munich, we were talking to a lot of Canadian officials, including the foreign minister and the secretary of defense. And those staffs you know, the secretary of defense there is a little less political than they are here. But, you know, Mélanie Joly's staff was basically preparing to be unemployed. They were preparing to be out of office. That's how down the Liberal Party was. You know, after Trudeau stepped down, they were expecting to lose that election and then to come rearing back. All the articles I've read have said it's direct result of Trump. He's actually losing people elections in other countries now. In Canada, they called the conservative maple MAGA. I don't know what we're calling the guy in Australia. Maybe, you know, good day, mate MAGA. I don't know. But is it a liability for these conservative politicians overseas who have tied their bandwagon too closely to Trump given the uncertainty Trump is fomenting in international markets and international relations?
Dearlove: Well, I think the effect on Canada, obviously, is so direct and so immediate and so close, and there's so much shock in Canada. And I gather Carney's now going down to DC to see Trump in the next few weeks. I think the first thing he should do is thank Trump profoundly for getting him elected, which I hope he will do because the irony is he didn't stand the cat's chance in hell of winning that election without the Trump lead up, which was so I think Canadians are really upset and really offended, I think, by the way they've been treated.
THE UK LOCAL ELECTIONS AND REFORM'S EARTHQUAKE
Dearlove: But the interesting thing is we've had an election here in the UK. Okay. They were only council elections, but they were very important. This is for local government. So it's the machinery of local government, and you're electing local councilors. But they're important elections because they dictate a lot of what happens at the local level, and it's the first big test of public opinion following the general election. And there has been a most extraordinary result with Reform led by Nigel Farage absolutely obliterating both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party and winning a massive number of seats, plus winning a by-election in a Westminster parliamentary seat, which was the sixteenth safest seat of the Labour government. They overturned a majority of 14,000 on a relatively small electoral turnout. So this isn't a protest vote. It's an earthquake. And it does show that if you look at the polling nationally now across the country, Reform, which is a sort of political insurgency on the right wing to the right of the conservatives, is now the leading party. And people are beginning to scratch their heads because it shows partly the breakdown of the two party system, which had dominated British politics since the nineteenth century. And we have this incredible result. But what I was gonna say is, Farage is close to Trump and is one of Trump's favorite friends. But what's interesting in the UK, the Trump effect has not affected Farage at all. Absolutely not. And there's just been a big row in the leadership of the Reform party, but that you could have expected that to have affected their electoral performance has no effect whatsoever. So we are in a pretty extraordinary political situation here. Although, now, there's a long wait, of course, until we have another significant election. There'll be another set of council elections in a year's time. We're a long way away from a general election. But everybody is talking about this dramatic result.
Raffini: But you think that will translate to wider national elections? Because if you think about who tends to vote in local election, who votes in council elections, it does tend to be older people who do skew more conservative. I mean, people here so we just did some polling here, and it's basically showing most Americans don't trust either the Democrats or the Republicans to have their best interests in mind. We don't really have a viable third party here, but is that what's coming out, you think?
Dearlove: Yeah. Well, I think that the irony is if you'd had a bigger turnout at the polls, the Gen Z group generally would go towards Farage. That's already been proven in other circumstances. I mean, bear in mind that in the general election, we have this first past the post system in the UK, and Reform then I mean, the reason that Labour did so well is the right wing vote was split between two parties. Reform were performing well, not well enough to win, but they came second in 90 constituencies. So what's happened since is that because the Labour Party now is so unpopular and they've made such a hash of their first period in government, that people are voting with Reform. And it's a big, big deal. It's a big shift in politics here. And it's quite likely that we will have Farage and our own MAGA party, and they will be the most important party politically over the next couple two, three, four years.
Raffini: I think this isn't an insurgency. It's a peasant's revolt. This week, the White House tweeted out an AI generated image of Trump as the pope. The other thing they tweeted out this week, which people thought was funny, is an image for Star Wars Day, which is the fourth. May the fourth be with you. And a lot of people were pointing out that Trump's computer generated lightsaber was red, which is actually the color of the evil characters in Star Wars. So either they need more nerds on their staff to fact check their Star Wars things they're sending out, or they were sending a very deliberate message. But they followed it up with one of the popes, so I don't know.
SHIFTS ON UKRAINE
Dearlove: What I have noticed in the last few days is that there's a definite shift in Trump's policy on Ukraine, and the Ukrainians seem to have their tails up again. And they're reporting today in our media a new Ukrainian incursion into Kursk with a massive tank formation. Have you heard about this?
Raffini: I haven't, but I've seen some other reports of places they're doing well, including a shoot down, I think, of a Russian aircraft I was looking at on Twitter. It was the first of its kind. It's interesting because I have long said that Macron and to a lesser extent, Starmer have a really good way of getting through to Trump. And that, you know, the funeral of the pope was like any family funeral where you go to pay your respects, but also, you know, you gotta talk to your cousins about all the drama that's going on in the, you know, the church basement. And that pull aside that he had with Zelensky, that in combination with Putin possibly overstepping, I think possibly to your point, has turned him slightly, slightly on Ukraine. And the messaging and the vibes, for lack of a better term, out of the White House do seem a little bit more supportive of Zelensky, of Kyiv, all of a sudden. The interesting part about that is Mike Waltz, the national security adviser, Captain Signal Gate, left. He's gone. He's been kicked out along with his deputy, and he was the big Russia hawk in the White House. So those are a bit of mixed messages.
Dearlove: Yeah. Well, I realized that a bit. Think what I would say is in the past when we've done a podcast with Rubio, he's very, very pro Ukrainian as well. But there's definitely a shift in attitude towards Ukraine, which I find encouraging. And we did this podcast with former ambassador Bill Taylor.
Raffini: I did it with him. In a way, what he was saying, it was very early days, but what he was saying to me in the podcast was reflecting this shift. So I'm fascinated by it. I mean, what is the feeling in Europe? Biden's foreign policy, I think, to say was a mixed bag is a bit of an understatement as someone who covered it right from the beginning. But he was very stalwart, and it was helpful, I think, for Europeans to have an American president so out front and so unwavering in support of Ukraine to kinda hold that alliance in Europe together. The durability of that has always been questioned after Biden left office. How is it faring? Is there still unanimity among Europeans about Ukraine policy? Are you starting to see fractures?
Dearlove: I don't think you're seeing fractures yet, but what you're not seeing is the degree of cohesion that I think we would need to form a more effective European backing. It's early days. I think there is solidity. France and UK seem to stand shoulder to shoulder. Poland as well. Of course, Germany, I think, is a bit behind the curve, but that's because Merz is only just forming his government. And I think he's due in Paris this week. So Merz's visit to Paris, and the rumor is he's keeping the socialist defense minister Pistorius. If the Germans step up to the block, then I think we're in a good position. The other thing then is to bring along Italy and Spain, both of whom are massively underspending on defense and need to get their act and their game together, which I'm sure will happen, but that's gonna take time. So, yeah, it's not too bad, but it's not as good as it might be.
Raffini: I feel like we could say that about so many things in this world right now. Sir Richard, was good talking to you. If you want more on Ukraine, please look up last week's episode with Sir Richard and former ambassador of Ukraine, Bill Taylor. And we'll have more content for you later in the week, so stay tuned.
