Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
This week on One Decision In Brief, Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove, former MI6 Chief, analyze how an Israeli minister’s visit to Temple Mount and Hamas’s release of a hostage video have each raised the stakes. Also, this week, President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Moscow, but there’s no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to compromise. Plus, Trump claims he’ll reposition two nuclear submarines near Russian territories, prompting many to question whether this is a subtle threat to former President Dmitri Medvedev’s online comments.
Episode produced by Leo Sidran. Original music composed and produced by Leo Sidran.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mccann: And welcome to One Decision in Brief. I'm Kate McCann and I'm joined as always by my co-host, Sir Richard Dearlove. And today, we're going to be talking about the future for two of the biggest conflicts that the world is currently facing. In Israel and in Gaza, what happens next there, and have Western politicians been wrong footed by Hamas? We'll talk about the recognition of a Palestinian state. And we'll also consider whether Steve Witkoff is the answer to the Ukraine Russia conflict. Perhaps not, thinks Sir Richard. But there are some really interesting dynamics at play here, and it could mean a significant involvement for the West for many years to come. We'll deal with both of those today.
Hi, Richard.
Dearlove: Hi, Kate. How are you?
Mccann: I'm good. Let's get started then because there's a lot on the agenda at the moment, and some of it is probably more substantial than other bits. I was really struck by the decision by Israeli minister Ben-Gvir. Now he is widely seen as on the right. He is a provocateur. He is not afraid to say things which many others, including other Israeli politicians, would not say out loud. He has drawn huge amounts of criticism because he went to Temple Mount and he prayed and he led a prayer there actually. It wasn't just him. And there has been a long standing agreement that that Israelis can visit this area, they cannot pray there. It's incredibly controversial, largely because it's also the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. It's a hugely conflicted area. What do you make of this in the context of the ongoing battle, war, between Hamas and Israel?
ISRAEL AND GAZA
Dearlove: Well, as you say, this is an immensely provocative move because of the convention that Israelis do not pray in the Temple Mount. And I heard a commentator on the World Service describing him as a political pyromaniac, and that's an Israeli saying that, an Israeli commentator who is quite moderate, actually. So this is an extreme move, and I think designed to escalate and designed to agitate and designed to provoke. And there's no question that it, you know, it's hugely provocative and, frankly, unnecessary. So it's not a religious move. It's a political provocation. No question.
Mccann: So where does it go from here? I mean, it's clear that the recognition of a Palestinian state does not have broad support, and nor did it come with any conditions really, is worth saying, or not any kind of tangible conditions, which I think apart from the release of the hostages, which is part of the problem. How tired do you think governments in the region are getting of this conflict? What's the Saudi stance on it? What do you think others are sort of thinking at the moment?
Dearlove: Well, I think they are faced with a dilemma, particularly the Saudis and the Egyptians, who are not sympathetic, really, to the fate of the Palestinians and certainly massive opponents of Hamas. Because of the pressure from their own streets, the Arab street is volatile and can be, you know, extremely difficult to handle politically and socially, even in Saudi Arabia. I mean, here the two, they've really sat on the fence. I think you can see uncertainty in both countries as to what, and then I should include Jordan in that, not so much the Gulf States. But I think what the Saudis would like is progress back towards something like the Abraham Accords, and that's what they would be after. But, of course, the longer this goes on, the more difficult it makes it to revive the Abraham Accords. But the other thing that did happen, I think, last week was that the Arab leaders agreed that Hamas could never rule Gaza. So in a way, that's an important development, which is, to an extent, supportive of the idea of eventually reviving the Abraham Accords. But, of course, it makes it also very difficult for them to have a cooperative agreement with Israel, which is, you know, based on some sort of mutual discussion and mutual understanding. It's okay if you're in Bahrain or somewhere in The Gulf States. I think they find it easier because they're more distant from the problem, and they don't have so much equity because, you know, they're smaller powers. The problems faced by the three primary countries. Cut Syria out of this because Syria's internal problems are such that it's not really a player at the moment. It's trying to reestablish the authority of the Syrian state. But, yeah, it is extraordinary what's happening because it's so fundamentally changing the politics of the Middle East. And of course, we haven't even spoken about Iran and where Iran sits on all. But there's clearly there are huge internal problems in Iran at the moment which are unresolved.
WITKOFF AND THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
Mccann: One man who has been really involved in talks, Steve Witkoff, is flying straight out of that particular conflict and reportedly into another. He is heading to Russia. I mean, he's Trump's Middle East envoy. He's a guy with basically the entire world's problems on his plate. And he's so far not really managed to solve any of them. Not really very surprising. Let's talk about where he's heading off to because, you know, alongside what's going on in Israel and Gaza, the Russia Ukrainian conflict is dominating the agenda, but there just doesn't seem to be any agreement or even any path to an agreement that it's possible to see at the moment. No. There's no movement at all that one can evidence.
Dearlove: And of course, you know, Putin continues to escalate in terms of attacking civilian targets and trying to wear down the Ukrainian population. The Ukrainians respond by attacking critical infrastructure and military related targets in Russia and very deep into Russia. This latest attack on the refinery in Sochi is pretty extraordinary. But I don't see any movement at all. And usually, when you have these complex international negotiations on very, very serious issues, you'd have a team of Sherpas, wouldn't you, that would go ahead and do a lot of the groundwork, and the principal wouldn't turn up until it was clear there was at least some basis or reason for turning up. And Witkoff doesn't seem to have that infrastructure, doesn't seem to have that support. He's not a professional diplomat. He's a property magnate. Maybe he's a very capable businessman, but what's he going to achieve? He's gonna fly into Moscow, and I would have thought that, you know, they'll sit down and talk, but there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any compromise coming from Putin. His primary objectives reflected in the original invasion of Ukraine remain exactly the same.
Mccann: I mean, first off, the fact that Steve Witkoff is going there at all, I mean, is that just a bit of time wasting and, you know, public face saving for the Americans and the Russians?
Dearlove: I think as Trump's star, you know, when he gets a deadline, which he has done in terms of secondary sanctions on Russia, which seems to be the next step. He doesn't actually do that without having a final meeting. So maybe that's, we're just going through some formal choreographed process, which isn't necessarily gonna deliver a result. I mean, it would be shocking and surprising. I mean, pleasantly so, if there were progress, but we can't see any evidence of that whatsoever. And maybe Trump just isn't gonna flick the switch.
Mccann: But it's clear that the relationship between Trump and Putin, between The US and Russia, is on a pretty steep downward path at the moment. That's what it looks like. But it does also mean if that relationship is on a downward spiral, and certainly seems like, I mean, the fact that Donald Trump has suggested he's moving US submarines closer to Russia, it doesn't sound good. That does also mean that any end to this conflict, any diplomatic end to this conflict, is now very, very unlikely.
Dearlove: I think it is. And I think it's about forcing Russia into some sort of compromise, both by economic sanctions and upping military support to Ukraine. I don't really see any alternative to that.
Mccann: But no one's willing to do that, are they? People are not willing to do that.
Dearlove: Well, maybe they will be if, you know, Witkoff comes back and says no deal, and Trump says, okay, we're gonna up our support. Maybe that means the Europeans paying for American weapons. That seems to be part of the solution that Trump's. And I don't think that essentially is a problem, given the German position has changed so radically, because the Germans, with these new debt agreements internally to finance defense, can easily do that. They've got the strength and the economic weight. So, I mean, there is a way forward, but the way forward really is escalatory in terms of the conflict in Ukraine. It doesn't take us any nearer to peace. And if the Chinese are faced with secondary sanctions, because they're supplying the Russian economy, you know, that's another issue of potential tension, isn't it, in terms of US Chinese trade, which is still being, you know, the Chinese tariffs still being negotiated. So, I mean, the outlook is not great at this point in time.
Mccann: How do you read, as somebody who understands this stuff better than most of us, how do you read that public announcement by Trump that he was moving US nuclear submarines closer to Russia? Because for most of us, you know, looking at that, you would think, well, hang on. If you're gonna do something like that, don't you want the element of surprise? Why would you say it out loud?
Dearlove: Well, it's sort of geopolitical theater, frankly, because, you know, The US nuclear deterrent carried by submarines is somewhere in the ocean. You know, you're not meant to know exactly where they are. Wherever they are, they have within target range of Russian targets. That's the whole point of a nuclear deterrent. So the fact they're being moved closer to Russia doesn't actually mean anything at all. The suspicion is, you know, it's part of a distraction mechanism to stop people talking about Epstein. If that's the case, it seems a very strange way to do it. And maybe that's a cynical explanation. But, look, it doesn't really mean anything at all.
Mccann: Is there an argument here that, actually, it's not an unsmart political move in the sense that we would never know if he'd moved them or not? We're not able to check whether he's lying or not, are we?
Dearlove: No. And the whole technology is based on these things being undetectable. Okay. The whole science of submarine carried nuclear deterrent is that you don't know where the hell they are. You know, can you trace the wakes of these submarines? You know, can you plant detectors on the seabed, you know, if you're Russian, to find out where they are? And similarly, can we do the same to the Russians? And, you know, it's an escalatory technology which is based on silence and deception and undetectability. So where they are is a massive secret, and moving them closer to Russia, it just doesn't really make any sense. I mean, I'm sure people can work that out for themselves without having much. I mean, I don't know a lot about the detail, but if you have some knowledge, you can actually see this is pretty nonsensical.
Mccann: Yeah. Does anyone in the government know where they are? In the UK government, would ministers know where they are? Or is it because it's the continuous at sea deterrent? That's the whole point. It just constantly goes around the world.
Dearlove: I'm not gonna go into the detail of who knows what. That's rather specific.
Mccann: Alright. Fine. I tried. I tried. So, I mean, but look, do you think, I mean, going back to the heart of this, which is Ukraine. I mean, there's been a lot of back and forth about President Zelensky, about whether he can continue in that role, about whether or not he made a bit of a wrong move recently when it came to some corruption, some elements of kind of policy around corruption, potentially his first big misstep, at least domestically in Ukraine. There was a bit of unsettled feeling around whether or not maybe Zelensky got a bit big for his boots. Do you get the sense that anything is gonna break this conflict one way or another at this point? Or are we just into stalemate, Russia digging in, Ukraine digging in with new technology, and Trump's gonna end up looking a bit stupid here?
Dearlove: I'm afraid that, you know, Trump's statements that he could end this conflict in twenty four hours were absurd and, you know, have been shown to be absurd. At the moment, there's no real move. The problem of corruption around Zelensky is real, and I think that's one of the things that has been, as it were, evaded because of Zelensky's heroism and his success as a war leader. But there's no question that there is corruption in his administration. And, you know, when he tried to change the corruption investigations in Ukraine, which are supposedly independent, and make them less independent and more presidential in terms of the lines of authority. There were these massive demonstrations, which I find enormously interesting because it does show that Ukrainian people care, that they have sort of democratic momentum, and that this is something I'm told massively upsets Ukrainian soldiers on the front line. You know, their lives are on the line. They're fighting in incredibly difficult circumstances, and there are people back in Kyiv enriching themselves by, you know, diverting supplies. But in terms of your question about where the conflict is going, I mean, the Russians are going nowhere. And actually, I'm of the view, and it is based on some analysis that I get access to, the Russian military capability is pretty much at peak performance now, and it ain't gonna get any better. It's gonna get worse. So how things play out between now and the end of the year will be interesting to see.
Mccann: The other part about the importance of democracy to those in Ukraine, I was speaking to a politician, Ukrainian politician, who was saying it was one of the hardest things that they had done, speaking out against Zelensky. But he was saying, basically, there's a feeling in Ukraine that if the Ukrainians allow any whiff of dictatorship or any kind of whiff of a lack of democracy, that that's the beginning of the end for them because the only thing that is keeping them from being swallowed up whole by Russia is democracy, the idea of a hope that they can be viewed as a legitimate democratic country potentially within the EU. Otherwise, if you are just sort of by one bloke who thinks he's king of everything, well, there's a guy who thinks he's the bigger king of everything over the border, and he'll just come in and take Ukraine in its entirety. And there'll be no one from the West who is willing to stand up for it. I just found it a really interesting insight into the internal politics. And this guy was saying, you know, we've been having this argument behind closed doors with Zelensky's team for quite a long time, and the only reason we're making it public is because they just haven't listened. So this didn't come from nowhere. You know, it's bubbling, bubbling, bubbling there in Ukraine. We'll see if Steve Witkoff makes a difference this time around where he couldn't solve the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Maybe he can do this one instead. So, Richard, great to speak to you.
Dearlove: Kate, wonderful speaking to you, and I look forward to our next exchange.
Mccann: That's it for this week's One Decision in Brief. Thanks for joining us. Of course, stay tuned for our regularly scheduled episodes that will be out on Thursday. And for exclusive content with world leaders, visit 1decision.com and our YouTube page where we've got plenty more just like this. I'm Kate McCann and I was joined today by Sir Richard Dearlove. Thanks for listening.
