Bonus: What’s Behind the Coup in Niger?

Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove

Guest

Episode Summary

Last week’s coup in Niger is the latest in a string of recent military takeovers in Africa—seemingly the final domino to fall in a region plagued by instability and the battle between Russia and the West for influence in the Sahel. Coup leaders are now facing an ultimatum from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to reinstate democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum or face the consequences including possible military intervention. On this week’s bonus episode, Julia Macfarlane asks her co-host Sir Richard Dearlove what he’s hearing from the French intelligence community about what’s behind the rebellion and if there’s any truth to reports about the Kremlin’s involvement.

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Transcript

INTRODUCTION

Lockwood: You're listening to One More Decision, a short update from the team that brings you the geopolitics podcast, One Decision. Every week, we speak to lawmakers, academics, experts, reflecting on the key decisions that shape all our lives. Together with my cohost, the former chief of British intelligence, Sir Richard Dearlove, we explore some of the biggest issues and choices facing our world. We drop our full episodes every Thursday. But today, a quick look at what is happening in Western Africa. In the summer of 2021, Malian soldiers led by the vice president, a former coup leader from the year before, seized the new president and his cabinet, stripping them of their powers and taking control for themselves. It was the third coup in Mali in just ten years. Just a couple of months later, the president of neighboring Guinea was captured by soldiers mounting a coup d'état following gunfights in the capital, Conakry. And last autumn, in Burkina Faso, also in Western Africa, the military ousted the interim president over his alleged inability to deal with the country's Islamist insurgency. That president had come to power himself in a coup d'état less than a year before. So last month, when the presidential guard in Niger announced they had captured their country's president and removed the civilian led government, it seemed like the last domino to fall in a region plagued by instability and powerful militaries taking control for themselves. But Niger is of particular importance to not just the West, but for Africa. A close security partner of the United States and France, it became the country where Western powers relocated their troops after being booted out from other Western African countries who've signed agreements with Russian mercenaries instead. The newly elected Nigerian president is leading regional ultimatums to the coup leaders to restore the government or face direct action. They have until Sunday to act. My cohost, Sir Richard Dearlove, who was the former chief of MI6, still has some pretty good contacts with his old colleagues in France, Niger's former colonial power. He caught up with them this week, and so I thought it would be a good idea to catch up with him to hear his thoughts on what's happening in Niger and why it matters to all of us.

ANALYSIS WITH SIR RICHARD DEARLOVE

Dearlove: Well, for a start, it's a Western ally, and it does have a democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. The French have a significant regional interest because it's a supplier, a significant supplier of uranium to the French nuclear, civilian nuclear program. And of course, the US also has troops there. And, you know, it's one of the countries in the Sahel which hasn't succumbed to a military takeover, like Burkina Faso, Mali, both of which the Wagner Group had a hand, and where Russian influence is displacing an area which was regarded very much as their backyard by the French state. So it's a pretty serious and alarming development when you look at it in context, because if this third country goes down to a coup which is sympathetic to the Russians, it looks to me very much like as though Putin is trying to pressurize Macron in, as I said, France's sort of geopolitical backyard. And I don't think we have a clear explanation about the composition of the coup, but it looks to me, I mean, I'm deeply suspicious and so have my friends in France to whom I've been speaking, that this has Putin's fingerprints on it. Well, Prigozhin's fingerprints, but actually, you know, that would be Putin mucking around in areas of Western interest because if you believe the Russians, which I solidly do, are conducting, you know, what I would say a great warfare against Western interests, they will look for pressure points and this is a Western pressure point.

Lockwood: The African Union has given the coup leaders this ultimatum of fifteen days in which to return to civilian governance and to release the president who is currently being detained.

Dearlove: Yeah, but it's also, I think, ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, joined with the African Union in making that démarche. And the other thing that's happened is that Nigeria has switched off the power, or my understanding is they have switched it off or threatening to switch it off. I think they've actually switched it off because Nigeria supplies maybe up to 70% of Niger's electricity supply.

Lockwood: I want to talk to you about the Russian angle, which I think is so interesting. But just quickly before we do, since you did briefly mention Nigeria, some of the issues which have put some pressure on Niger, considering the countries it shares a border with, it has had to deal a bit with Boko Haram militants. It does share a border with Nigeria. There have been other Islamist militants who the Nigeriens have had to deal with. They've displaced lots of villages outside of the cities. And Niger has also had to deal with some instability from the Libyan civil war as well. And what I'm asking is what happens if Niger then becomes a failed state? What happens to other countries in the region when Niger, which was a little bit, I mean certainly not perfect but was a little bit of an oasis of stability in what is a very unstable region?

Dearlove: Well, I think if the West, as it were, loses its alliance with Niger, that's a pretty serious development, I mean, from two possible points of view. I mean, because there will be creeping Islamist influence, and they will be less effective in, as it were, the role that they've played against Islamists in the region, or similarly, you know, represents another Russian bridgehead. I mean, the French friends who I've spoken to are pretty angry about what's going on and accuse actually the Élysée of being rather neglectful of French interests in the area. And if you viewed over time, I mean, they allowed Mali to slip out of their grip, they allowed Burkina Faso to slip out of their grip. And now there are some very, very worried military figures and intelligence figures in Paris saying, you know, what on earth is Macron up to? And I looked in the French satirical journal, the Canard Enchaîné, and there's been this very public disagreement between Macron and the head of the French intelligence service, the DGSE. Macron saying he should have been warned that the coup was imminent and had a chance to take preventive action, and the head of the DGSE saying he warned the Élysée several months ago of the possibility of a coup, they weren't the slightest bit interested and did nothing, so let's see where that leads. It's a pretty embarrassing public dispute.

Lockwood: I read the reports in the Times that went into, President Macron, who had been embarrassed that France apparently had appeared to have been blindsided. Obviously, France, Niger is very important to France because, as you mentioned, it relies heavily on its uranium to fuel its nuclear power stations. And also, Niger plays an important role in helping to protect France from Islamic terrorism on French soil. There are about 1,500 French soldiers on the ground, and I think slightly fewer American soldiers as well. The head of the DGSE, he claims that he warned the Élysée that a coup was possible. I mean, coups have happened in Niger since independence from France. I guess coups are possible in a lot of similar countries in Africa that are new democracies or newly independent from colonial powers. But how much of this was an intelligence failure do you think? And what could France have done with a mere 1,500 soldiers on Nigerien soil?

Dearlove: Well, probably quite a lot. The troops that are there, in my understanding, the French Foreign Legion, they're a pretty tough bunch. They could have thrown in some of their paras, they could have coordinated with the Americans, the Americans could have reinforced. And I mean, I think the problem at the moment is we don't really know what the political composition of the coup leaders is. I mean, the suggestion that's been made to me, it is the ultimate issue is about tribal balance in the leadership. But I don't know enough about the ins and outs of, as it were, the competing tribal groups to know whether that's a true explanation. And of course, there is this threat now by the African Union and the ECOWAS states that would or could be an African military intervention. I think the French will try to keep out of it. I think the Americans will try to keep out of it. And the coup leaders, one of these anti French organizations that exist in that part of the world got a lot of people out onto the streets and organized some sort of pretty violent demonstration in front of the French embassy. So there is a certain amount of tension and you know that the French have already taken out a big group of foreign nationals, which they flew out because of the threat of violence.

Lockwood: The Americans may not have taken huge or concrete steps yet, but the Secretary of State, Tony Blinken, a few days after all this transpired, he gave quite a bleak, stark warning to the coup leaders. He said, let me be very clear about this. Our economic and security partnership in Niger, which is significant, hundreds of millions of dollars, depends on the continuation of the democratic governance and constitutional order that has been disrupted by the actions of the last few days. He does appear to be threatening quite a lot of money, that's something that I'm sure the coup leaders will be considering. The French have suspended all development aid to the country, which makes up I think around 40% of Niger's GDP. There's clearly a lot of brass tacks for these coup leaders to consider, but I mean what else can the international community do?

Dearlove: Well, I think that they're doing what you initially do in these cases, you know, withholding economic support is a pretty heavy sanction to a country which is as poor and as needy as Niger and I think if there's any sort of military intervention, it's likely to be an African military intervention, maybe with some sort of logistic support from the French in terms of things like transport or logistical supplies. But this hasn't played out yet. But all I would say is there are a lot of very angry people in Paris who are fed up to the back teeth with Macron and the sort of style of his foreign policy, and in particular his neglect of an area which has been politically and economically really important to France for many many years.

THE RUSSIAN ANGLE

Lockwood: Well, someone who is stepping into the void left by France are the Russians and the Chinese. I wanted to ask you about the Russian angle and Russian involvement. I thought it was really interesting that both the coup leaders, the military junta leaders of both Mali and Burkina Faso were at the Africa Leaders Summit in St Petersburg recently, and they were actually there when the coup in Niger happened. And I also heard that there was a Telegram channel that's affiliated with Alexander Dugin, who is this ideologue who's said to be very influential with Putin, of course it was his daughter who was killed in this explosion in Russia last year. Apparently, he wrote, according to this channel, which is affiliated with him, Niger is ours. The last pockets of French Africa is overthrown right for the start of the Russian Africa Forum, Niger to Nigeriens. Now I thought it was interesting because Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, he didn't criticize the coup. He didn't call for civilian government to be reinstalled, but he did call for the president to be released. And I think that's sort of the furthest the Russians have gone. But there were people on the streets waving the Russian flag. This is obviously another sort of boon for Wagner mercenaries who are very, very present in the region. What do you think is at stake if civilian government is not restored? Will Wagner mercenaries step into the void that has been filled by French security forces and French soft power and their diplomats? Is this another country which will effectively be under Putin's boot?

Dearlove: Strategically, it's not a big deal. But on the other hand, it's significant. And it's a way of prodding at Western interest and involvement. And it will look, you know, if what you're describing happens, and Prigozhin and the Wagner Group become more prominent, you know, will be seen as a move forward, an aggressive move forward by the Russians. I think it's going to make the French government sit up very sharply and reconsider their position in the region, because they've lost a lot of ground. Niger, I think, is the third supplier of importance to the French nuclear industry in terms of uranium, but it probably could be replaced, but on the other hand that takes time and it creates awkwardnesses and you know I'm absolutely sure that this is a step along the grey warfare route, with Russia, you know, getting at the West points of vulnerability. I think we will need to sit down, the West generally, and think hard about how we prevent the dominoes falling over in this region, which is strategically important because it's potentially rich in natural resources, and it's a problem because of the fight against Islamist terrorism, and I mean, the other longer term problem, affects France, affects the UK, of course, the likelihood is you get a stream of more refugees coming out.

Lockwood: Do you think that's part of Putin's plan?

Dearlove: Oh definitely, yeah yeah yeah. I mean he's, you know, this is about destabilizing the countries of Europe in any way that's possible. Niger has been an important European ally and this is a step towards further destabilization. I'm absolutely sure of that. Certainly it's what the French intelligence community are saying privately and the French military, I know, are furious about this having been sort of allowed to develop and happen.

Lockwood: That's it for this week's episode of One Decision. We drop new episodes every Thursday. Like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. Drop us a line. Tell us your thoughts. What decisions have impacted you and where you live? You can write to us. Our email is 1decision@1decisionpodcast.com. From me and the team, thank you for listening, and see you next time.