Episode Info
- Season17
Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a series of strategic deals aimed at strengthening military, economic and technological ties between the two countries. The strategic partnership is crucial as the United States moves to reign in Russia’s influence and counter China’s growing military presence. One Decision's Julia Macfarlane and Sir Richard Dearlove discuss the details of the joint pact including increased defense capabilities, building semiconductor facilities and jet engines in India, more collaboration on advanced technology and what this new partnership means for China.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mcfarlane: You're listening to One More Decision, a short update from the team that brings you One Decision. I'm your host, Julia McFarlane, and together with my co-host, Sir Richard Dearlove, we explore the big choices made that shape our world. We drop our full podcasts on Thursdays where we interview world leaders, ministers, and experts about the big issues we face today and tomorrow. But in the meantime, there's one more decision worth exploring in brief this week. Richard, Prime Minister Modi of India has been in Washington this week for talks with President Biden and other US officials. Biden said that ties between Washington and Delhi were strengthening rapidly. They had a round of talks, which after they concluded, they announced a bunch of defense deals, which are very clearly aimed at weaning India off their arms purchases from Russia, which has been quite a bit of contention between the two for a number of years. India's gonna invest more than $2,000,000,000 in state of the art manufacturing in the US, and it's also going to purchase billions of dollars worth of upgraded Reaper drones made by the US. It's hoped that these drones, also known as Sea Guardians, are gonna add to India's intelligence capabilities. They also announced the production of jet fighter engines, which share the same tech and engines as US FA-18 jets. Now that's really interesting because the US has been quite protective of that technology. The fact that they're now willing to share some of that tech with India signals that there's a lot more trust between the two countries. It's important to note that before this trip, of course, Russia has sold nearly 20 times as much arms and weaponry to India as the US has over the last decade. So clearly, this is a charm offensive from Washington. This is in the context of the situation in Ukraine and how India has really not gotten involved. Modi has not condemned Putin over the reinvasion of Ukraine. But one thing that the Indians certainly want from Washington is more assistance and more action really on growing Chinese expansionism, which is a big thing that Modi has been bringing to the talks with Biden. How do you think the visit has been going down so far?
ANALYSIS WITH SIR RICHARD DEARLOVE
Dearlove: Well, you ask how it's been going down. I mean, I suppose it's how you, you know, from what perspective you judge it. And, you know, there will be a tendency to look at Indian, I should say, look at Modi's human rights record, and, you know, certain areas like that, and then be very critical. But I think you have to be a realist in looking at the burgeoning relationship between the US and India. And I think this requires a little bit of a historical perspective, because India, for a long period of time, and particularly towards the end of the Cold War, was one of the undisputed leaders of the non-aligned movement. And it was very, very careful not to associate itself strategically too closely with the West, despite the cultural affinities that existed. And this was an important aspect of Indian policy. And you have to give credit to the last Bush administration, because they worked very hard diplomatically to move India to a position which was closer to the West. And I think what you're really seeing now, you know, and this isn't a bipartisan issue, it's a much more important strategic issue. Fruits of that effort on the part of the United States to build a relationship, you know, with the world's largest democracy, and make it a key partner, and of course, the unstated. I mean, it always amuses me when you look at the analysis of these visits, that one thing that isn't mentioned is China. But of course, it's all about China. And it's all about, you know, containing China in Asia, where India is going to be a crucial partner. For example, for India itself, the question of the Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean is a huge aggravation. So you know, they're building naval bases in Myanmar, they've got a very close relationship with Sri Lanka. And, you know, these are strategic issues of great importance to India. So who are India going to deal with? They're going to deal with the United States, to a lesser extent with the UK, to a lesser extent with Australia, to a lesser extent with Japan, but you can see the formation of the strategic alliance in which India will be absolutely key central player. And, I mean, that's the significance of the visit. This visit is a big, big deal. And it's not as though the United States hasn't had close relationships with countries whose human rights records are rather poor. Saudi Arabia, for example, Colombia. I mean, there are many and you can't really judge this relationship. I mean, whatever the US says or does, and it will say and do things about India's human rights record or Modi's policy, is not going to greatly change the way that the Indians conduct themselves or this particular Indian government conducts itself. And I mean, in that respect, I'm rather a pragmatist. I'm not a great believer in what used to be referred to as moral foreign policy, because the key interests of nation states and the key interests of the world's superpowers are engaged here. And India, well, it isn't a superpower, but it's certainly a very significant regional power. And I'm sure it will have pretensions to be a major player on the world scene in a way that it hasn't been hitherto perhaps.
Mcfarlane: Yeah, I think that's totally right. And look, the West itself and its constituent parts certainly not immune to accusations of human rights violations and all sorts of things. I did think it was interesting that Modi took questions at the press conference. He doesn't do it often, if at all, but he had to take some encouraging from the Americans to allow questions. And in the first phase he invariably was challenged on his human rights record, which, as you say, is pretty dubious at best. And that's mostly to do with his policies, which his critics have said, discriminate against religious minorities, particularly Muslims. And there has been a crackdown on dissent and press freedom under his very nationalist Hindu government. He responded to the question from that reporter who challenged him on this saying, democracy is in our DNA. Democracy is our spirit. Democracy runs in our veins, which I thought was interesting. But you say this visit was all about China, and you point out that the Indians are increasingly concerned with Chinese aggression. Riddle me this because something I really don't understand about India, yes, they have this long standing non-aligned policy. They famously don't have any allies. They instead choose to be totally non-aligned and just have partners and friends with everyone. They share a more than 2,000 mile border with China and the most recent border clash was less than a year ago. They are a part of the Quad, which is this group of US allies, which is made up of India, Japan, Australia and the US, and that is all about countering China. But then the Indians are in the RIC, the Russia India China group. They're in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is a big sort of diplomatic economic club, obviously led by China. India is a part of them. The Indian Chinese relationship is peculiar because on the one hand, the Indians are concerned about the Chinese and they've been going over, they're over in the US right now because they're trying to seek US support and increasing US action with regard to China. But then they are in all these cooperative organizations and multilateral organizations with the Chinese and they don't want to be aligned to anyone, but they're asking the US to be aligned to them when it's to do with China. So are they trying to have their cake and eat it?
Dearlove: Well, yeah, I think they are. I mean, it's a balancing act. And I think in a way, you know, India is keen to define itself as a powerful independent nation. And these relationships are heavily nuanced. So there's a tendency on the part of the media, let's say, to try to make black and white judgments. But India lives in this zone of its own making. And of course, it has great interest in maintaining some sort of dialogue and working relationship with the Chinese, not necessarily very successfully bilaterally, but through multilateral organizations to which it belongs. And similarly, you know, it's currently getting a good deal from Russia, which may upset the West, it certainly does me, that, you know, it's getting a lot of cheap oil from Russia because no one else will buy it. And I don't think that India, as it were, is a pushover in any way. It will meet our strategic expectations to the extent that those expectations match its own strategic expectations. And I think that's what you see playing out in Washington. I mean, in a way, this is a hugely positive visit. And it does indicate that India has chosen a position or is choosing a position which has a certain advantage for the West. And I would see it becoming a more important ally over time and being perhaps much more cautious in the future about how it deals with Russia. And I mean, interestingly, Modi's been very outspoken about the threat of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon, for example. So they can make a clear contribution without necessarily being our best and most cooperative friends. I mean, I've, you know, in my experience, found the Indians quite difficult to deal with. And, I mean, I went there with Tony Blair after 9/11. And our meetings were heavily nuanced and quite complicated. Particularly, you know, when you look at the relationship with India and Pakistan, and the whole background to that, and Pakistan's development of a nuclear capability, how India has responded, and of course, the two countries that are not signed up to the NPT treaty, Pakistan and India, for reasons which are obvious to all of us who know anything about that.
Mcfarlane: They've never really admitted to having nuclear weapons in the first place, have they? I do know that apparently their big nuclear warhead is called the Smiling Buddha, which is a fact I'm obsessed with. Well, I don't, you know, India has not admitted to being a nuclear power. So if they were to join the NPT, that would essentially be them outing themselves as being nuclear armed.
Dearlove: They would, they would. And certainly Pakistan, although we all, you know, we know that Pakistan's tested, whereas India hasn't. There's some very potent issues that lie sort of beneath the surface of relationships. And of course, India are very secretive about these issues. Israel needs an honorable mention in that conversation as well. There is a relationship, we believe, which is significant between Israel and India.
Mcfarlane: Yeah, yeah. That's another really, really fascinating relationship I'd love to get into. We've actually, we have very briefly brushed upon that last year, and I'd love to actually get into it again in actual detail because I think that's a really, really interesting topic. Richard, last question to you. Prime Minister Modi is the third foreign leader that Biden has hosted at a state dinner after the French president Emmanuel Macron and the South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol. No UK, poor Rishi Sunak has not been received at a state level in Washington. I mean, we are now small fry on the geopolitical international stage now, right? Have we been relegated to the backbenches?
Dearlove: I don't agree with that. If you refer to something like, you know, the Henry Jackson Society audit of soft power and influence in the world, I mean, I'm surprised in a way that Biden hasn't accorded, you know, that level of official welcome to a British prime minister. But I'm a little bit suspicious of US presidents who don't publicly embrace the special relationship. And the two I would mention are Obama, who was not, as I think, a particular friend of the UK. And I don't think Biden is either. Perhaps his Irish roots have something to do with it.
Mcfarlane: I mean, I'm twice as Irish as President Biden and I don't make it sort of the centerpiece of my whole personality but I know when he makes something, you know, this ridiculous visit he made, this sort of emotional visit that Biden made to Ireland was a very questionable event. Well, I was gonna say, do you really think it is a personal choice of President Obama and President Biden? Obama, of course, had to deal with some very, very unpleasant comments from British politicians, including Boris Johnson about his background. That really got things off to a very bad start. The whole issue with that Churchill bust being removed from the Oval Office. And then Biden, of course, yeah, the Irish stuff. But do you really think the fact that the UK has not had a state visit and that the special relationship has maybe sort of faltered us down to sort of the personalities of President Obama and Biden? You don't think it is actually the fact that Britain is not really seen as a big power player that the US need to recognize with a state visit like France, like South Korea, like India?
Dearlove: Well, I think you have to look at the larger context. And the fact is, if you work in Washington, as I have done, you understand the intensity, the breadth, and the depth of the special relationship, particularly in areas like intelligence liaison, nuclear cooperation. I mean, there are all sorts of things which are not really in the public domain. They're almost routine on a day to day basis. And those relationships are not shared bilaterally with hardly any countries. The US, you know, the closest partners in these areas are Australia and the United Kingdom, there's no question about that. So I wouldn't judge the relationship on the basis that these events haven't happened. You know, there are reasons that less vague, there's a more potent reason why Modi should be given this treatment. There's probably a more potent practical reason as to why South Korea, you know, when North Korea is misbehaving, should be given this treatment. I mean, Macron, well, you have a historic link between France and the United States, goes back to the War of Independence. All these things are understandable, but I can tell you if you're working in the French Embassy in Washington, they would be very different from working in the British Embassy in Washington on a pragmatic and day to day basis. I don't think that one should make a judgment about that. We do tend to spend a lot more time obsessing over this on this side of the pond than they do about us, though. I think that's pretty clear. And let's face it, our recent politics have been a bit chaotic, and that doesn't help. But I mean, Rishi recently was in the States, wasn't he? I mean, he was recently in Washington, wasn't he? Yeah, he was. Wasn't a state visit though.
Mcfarlane: Although President Biden did say that he made some comment about he's gonna start getting sick of me because we keep seeing each other.
Dearlove: Well, I mean, this is it. I mean, I think, you know, in a way it's much more impressive to have routine visits that don't have all the paraphernalia of a state visit because it shows there's so much business going on. And I mean there's a reluctance, the business of a state visit is extremely demanding, you know, governmentally just in terms of organization, a Prime Minister can fly over, have a meeting and fly back. That's probably more important actually on a day to day basis.
Mcfarlane: Yeah, organizing yoga at the United Nations would have taken quite a lot of preparation like it did this week. But, yeah, interesting, interesting stuff. Thanks, Richard. That's it for this week's episode of One Decision. We drop new episodes every Thursday. Like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. Drop us a line. Tell us your thoughts. What decisions have impacted you and where you live? You can write to us. Our email is 1decision@1decisionpodcast.com. From me and the team, thank you for listening, and see you next time.
