Bonus: The World Comes to Modi. What Does He Want?

Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove

Guest

Mujib Mashal

Mujib Mashal is The New York Times' South Asia Bureau Chief discussing the upcoming G20 Summit in New Delhi, India.

Episode Summary

The New York Times' South Asia Bureau Chief Mujib Mashal talks to One Decision ahead of the upcoming G20 Summit in New Delhi, India. The global gathering offers a unique opportunity for the world's largest democracy to exert more international influence. Major players are vying to get the country on their side when it comes to geopolitics, the war in Ukraine, its hefty trade prospects, and its massive regional influence. But what does Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi want? Besides another term in office - he is preparing to fight another general election in 2024, and is using all his resources in office to secure what's pretty likely to be another term as the leader of the free world - in population terms, at least.

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Transcript

INTRODUCTION

Lockwood: You're listening to One More Decision, a short update from the team that brings you the geopolitics podcast, One Decision. Every week, we speak to lawmakers, academics, and experts reflecting on the key decisions that shape all our lives. With my host, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former chief of Britain's MI6, we explore some of the biggest issues and choices facing our world today. We drop our full episodes every Thursday. But today, we thought we'd look at the eighteenth G20 summit, which is taking place later this month in the Indian capital of Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in his campaigning element at a time when world powers are all vying for India's support. He can take comfort in the fact that pretty much everyone has been trying to court him, from Vladimir Putin to Joe Biden. And in the last year since Russia's all out war in Ukraine, European leaders Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and Giorgia Meloni have all arrived on Modi's home turf to try and woo the leader of the world's most populous nation on Earth. So what does India, and more specifically, Narendra Modi, want from the world? The New York Times' South Asia bureau chief, Mujib Mashal, is based in Delhi, and I gave him a ring to catch up ahead of the G20 and hear what he thinks Modi wants. Let's get to it.

INTERVIEW

Lockwood: I just want to first of all say, I'm sure many of our listeners will be aware of, but I followed your work so closely in Afghanistan. You wrote so powerfully over, you know, so many of the devastating things that the Afghan people were going through, but also you always included inspiring stories of hope. And I think one of your final dispatches was you were covering the killing of a friend or someone that you knew towards the end of your tenure. And on the one hand, I'm so happy for you to have moved on to a slightly less traumatizing beat such as India and such an interesting place to be based, but we have really missed your coverage from Afghanistan. How have you been finding the move to India at a time such as now?

Mashal: Well, thank you for having me. It has been a great distraction in the sense that how overwhelming India is, and that keeps my mind occupied not to think about the sad reality of what's happening back at home in Afghanistan and what that country descended into again, unfortunately. The cycle there that we all hoped could have been prevented, unfortunately, was not prevented. But on the other hand, I studied India in university and returning to India as a reporter and trying to learn the way this country is transitioning into a growing power. It's a fascinating time to be here and to watch all these trends and patterns in India.

Lockwood: I think that G20 is obviously happening in Delhi very soon. And it's something that I hear is a very big deal for the Indians as G20 banners and advertisements all over the city. I went to Indonesia. I went to Bali shortly after they hosted the G20 last year, and I can say that all of the G20 paraphernalia is still up in the airport and all over the all over the towns. So, yeah, India is on the cusp of this huge summit and they have some very specific goals in mind that they want to get on the agenda.

Mashal: One thing to understand is the timing. This is happening just a few months before India goes into a big election. And Prime Minister Modi is seeking a third term. And one thing we know about Modi is that he is a great event manager basically. And he is really good at PR. Essentially, his power is built on just how great he and his party is at propaganda and at PR. For him, this one year of G20 events before actual campaigning can start has essentially given him a whole stretch of campaigning. He's turned G20 into something that's traveled around India almost like a carnival, right? In little towns, cities, hundreds of events held, and they've had delegations travel around India to hold meetings. And essentially what he's done with this is to tell his constituency that I'm bringing the world to you. So that is essentially a very strong part of his political campaign for his next term, that he has helped raise India's stature in the world and he is showing them now that, hey, I can bring the world to you. So that's been the reality of it. In terms of the big takeaways that they hope that they can get consensus on, there's still struggle over whether they can agree on language about the Ukraine war. There's still a lack of clarity on climate and commitments, climate financing and issues like that, whether all the sides can agree. But having known that going into it, India has had more medium goals that they want to achieve out of it. And one big one, and I think this is an interesting one, is that they want to see if they can get consensus around the idea of digital public infrastructure. And I don't know if you've heard about this, but it is remarkable. The easiest manifestation of this is if you buy vegetables on the street, right? You pull out your phone, you scan a code, you pay, and that money goes directly from your bank account to the seller's bank account without cards involved, without sort of things like that. Very simple processes. And that has happened because the country invested in creating this digital infrastructure that then sort of vendors come on board, private vendors come on board, rather than allowing private vendors to create that. They think in that, in terms of digitally bringing people on board and including them into the economy, they've created a blueprint, they think that can be used in many other countries and they're hoping they can get consensus around that.

Lockwood: That's so interesting. I want to just ask about the geopolitics with regard to Ukraine. But since you bring this up, one thing I've always wondered about India is that there does seem to be a bit of a dichotomy where India is sort of world famous and world renowned for their IT and tech innovations, but they also have this huge wealth inequality, their advancements in tech. We were all celebrating their space program recently. It hasn't lifted the millions it has out of poverty. And what is the reason for that? It can't just be corruption is a problem. It's gotta be more complicated than that, right?

Mashal: It's absolutely true that in a way it's a land of dichotomies in that sense. That on the one hand, it is growing into the world's fifth largest economy, right? In terms of economic output. On the other hand, the average income hasn't changed much, right? And that is what determines the standard of living and sort of the quality of life. So on top, see this GDP growing and growing every few years saying, oh, we are the fifth largest economy, then we're going to become the third largest economy. But for the vast majority of this country, the average income that determines what kind of life they have hasn't changed because the growth is so unequal. At the top it keeps growing, it just doesn't trickle down as much. Unemployment is still a massive issue in this country. The dichotomy you were mentioning about, the economy was growing at the top, but such a vast part of it was an informal economy, right? So what they're hoping that at least with very simplified digital processes and cheaper digital public goods is what they call it, a set of services and a set of that they can include more people. But the question here again is that I don't think there's clarity that the digital inclusion leads into economic growth. That is not clear. But at least what it does is it creates that first step of including more people into the formal economy, right? What you do with that then gives you options and it means how you handle the next steps, but at least you do what India had struggled for a long time is to include more people in the formal economy.

Lockwood: Right. And if they square that circle, that is something that could have profound changes and impact, not just for India, but other developing countries. And we've seen also recently this question about BRICS expansion and whether there will be a lot more countries potentially joining the BRICS block, giving a greater say among developing countries as a sort of counterweight to very Western dominated international organizations. And I think what's so interesting about this moment in time is, as you said, the G20 is going to be dominated over the issue of Ukraine. Is it not the actual reality that while the West and the US and its key allies in Europe, we are overwhelmingly interested and preoccupied with the issue of the war in Ukraine, but also the fact that Ukraine needs to win in order to uphold principles and ideals of territorial sovereignty and territorial integrity. Whereas a lot of the global South, a lot of developing countries, they only care about the war in Ukraine insofar as it's impacting global food prices. And so there are all these competing sort of priorities and a lot of countries outside of the West's orbit are frankly tired of always being fed Western agendas, whereas they want to empower themselves to have a greater say in a lot of these organizations.

Mashal: Absolutely. Absolutely. I think that is why the moment is really interesting that on the one hand, in terms of solutions, the way India sees this conversation around G20, not just G20, around all the multilateral platforms. They're very critical of it in the sense it empowers, they think, a small layer of Western elite, whereas the solutions that come out of the multilateral platforms have not worked as well for the poorer countries for the global South. Whereas you said, the decision making ends up having huge ramifications in the day to day lives. The sanctions after the war in Ukraine has essentially impacted the whole world. And which is why they keep saying this could have been just a war in Europe, but the way you handle the war has made it a war with global ramifications. In these conversations, we need to be involved because you make decisions that impact the lives of people in a village in Bangladesh or somewhere in Ethiopia or any of these places. This is why I think the conversation right now is interesting, in the geopolitics of it, but also on the solution side. They're saying countries like India are demonstrating that we can do things cheaper, we can do things more effective, we can offer you blueprints for solutions of real life problems that actually have better implementation in a large part of the country, in a large part of the world, which is why India is saying, give me a larger voice in the global order, not just because I deserve it, because of my size. India is the world's most populous country right now because I'm a growing economy, even if, as you said, the reality of that economic growth is unequal, but also give me a larger say in global issues because I can offer solutions that could be more effective simply because I speak those solutions for a more complex reality.

Lockwood: I think that's such a good point. And I think it's no secret that for a long time, India has really wanted that permanent seat on the UN Security Council that it doesn't look like it's getting anytime soon. But one of the reasons why I do like these international summits, even though generally they are all pretty boring and nothing interesting ever really happens out of these G20s and G7s or that. One thing that I do find really interesting is if you watch the body language between world leaders, any of those off mic sort of, you know, cameramen hovering around these world leaders catch really interesting bits of conversation among the different groups of players. Because actually, what's happening right now is the Brits, the Americans, they desperately want India to get on board, to play a bigger role in geopolitics, to help provide more solutions and assistance to try and solve a lot of these international issues. And also India wants something as well. India wants more support from the West over the issue with China. And so it's so interesting to see the body language because while the Western leaders really want to sign the Indians up to get them on board to take a bigger role in geopolitics, what the Indians want is they want more help, more assistance from the West with regards to China.

Mashal: You're absolutely right that these multilateral summits, the body language, even the bilateral meetings that end up taking place become really interesting. I think if you look at the trajectory of India's foreign policy, it is this delicate dance trying to stay neutral in a way where it can extract a little bit out of every option it has. So on the one hand, it is very careful not to be anti Western, right? That yes, it plays in these groupings like BRICS where Russia and China are major players. On the other hand, it doesn't want to be seen as too pro Western either because it's so vulnerable in its geopolitics. You don't want to piss off China too much because you share a huge border with China. There were skirmishes at that border three years ago that are unresolved. High up in the Himalayas, the Chinese and the Indian soldiers are still at each other's face. So a reminder of how vulnerable India is, right? If it goes too far into the Western realm of influence, it knows that it's going to have backlashes on its border because China can poke it very easily there. And then broadly speaking, India, because of, as you said, hasn't gotten its fair share in the UN system in wanting a Security Council seat and India knowing that that is not coming anytime soon. So it is this really interesting dance of getting a little bit that it can from every platform and hoping that that combines together into its rising influence and rising stature, even as the formal structures of an institution like the UN will take forever to sort of affirm India's rise as the power that it wants, right? So it's getting bits and pieces from contradictory groupings and hoping it all comes together, but it makes it a very, very delicate and exhausting dance.

Lockwood: Yeah. It's so interesting. You've mentioned a couple of times the Indian point of view that, oh, you know, the war in Ukraine, the West is trying to make it our war. It's so interesting that that's how they see it because it was Putin who bombed the grain silos. It's Putin who's barricading, you know, the ports and stopping the ships, transporting Ukrainian grain out to the world. They are really buying up Putin's narrative, aren't they?

Mashal: They are and they aren't. I mean, they've expressed their unhappiness about the war also. But it's just that the history of their relationship with the West, particularly with the US, right, has been such that in the very difficult moments of India's history, it was actually Moscow that came to their help. Warming up to the West and the US is a very recent thing. For a long time, the US really blocked India out of a lot of things, including sanctioning it for testing its nuclear weapons because it felt that it was in a hostile neighborhood and it needed that option. It faced decades of Western and American sanctions, right? So when you look at this in the bigger picture, for India to give up on Russia, no matter how hostile and how aggressive Putin has been in invading Ukraine, it doesn't think its relationship with America is that far ahead to do that, to give up on Russia, right? So ultimately for India, it is about its interests and in how it calculates and tries to safeguard its interests. Unfortunately, it is not letting principles come to the front because India is often reminded that if you don't take a principal position on this, you face the same vulnerability with China, right? China is an aggressive power at your gates. And when your territory is threatened, as it happened three years ago, you wanted the world to stand with you, right? So it's a very, very complicated position India finds itself. On the one hand, it wants to stand up for sovereignty, territorial sovereignty, because it's got its problem at the border too. On the other hand, he knows this is as much a war between the US and NATO and Russia, as it is a war between Ukraine and Russia.

Lockwood: Yeah, I think that's so right. And just my last question for you since you gave us that domestic context at the start when we were initially discussing the G20. Just bring us back to the situation in India and how Modi is finding it with the campaigning. Does he face a credible rival, or do you think he's very likely to secure another term in office?

Mashal: Just before we go to Modi's chances, one other interesting irony that we need to keep reminding ourselves is that India's moment of rise in stature at the global stage is happening at a time when domestically Modi is applying the same ambitious sort of approach to very divisive politics, right? So the agenda for rising at the global stage is being built on what is unfortunately becoming a tense and combustible moment simply because his right wing Hindu politics is essentially changing the secular structure that has held India's diversity together for so long. The question then becomes, you've got this perpetual tension between Hindu Muslim issues, his right wing base pressing the button so often, when you've got the possibility of flare ups so often, can you really build a narrative of economic growth on that kind of a ground, right? Because that actually then goes counterproductive to economic growth, which requires predictability, which requires a conducive environment, right? So that is one sort of irony that we need to keep in mind as well. In terms of Modi's chances next year, he is so far ahead of any competitor because the opposition is very divided still. He's done such a good job in his first two terms of just crushing the opposition, of sort of removing any middle ground space where he has monopoly over the information channels, over the media and over the parliament. And so the space in which the opposition can operate and actually the most important, he has a monopoly over resources, which you need a lot of to fight elections in this country. So this election will be fought in a space where Modi's stature as a leader is far ahead of any of his competitors, but also he has a massive advantage in the information space, in resources. So his chances are much stronger. The opposition groups are trying to come together, build a coalition, but so far their momentum has been very slow. It's a huge battle.

Lockwood: Yeah. Are there term limits in India? I mean, he keep going on and on and on forever?

Mashal: I think he can. I don't think there are any term limits. He can just go on forever and he's pretty healthy. He does yoga and you've probably seen those photos of him doing his stretches with his peacocks in his garden. So he keeps fit and I don't think there are term limits in India. I think India has had much older prime ministers than him. And as Biden and the race in the US tells us, age is clearly not a thing in these races anymore.

Lockwood: No, no. That's a conversation for another day with all the the octogenarians and nonagenarians in America. That's a conversation for a different day. Mujib, it's been so great to talk to you. What a fascinating conversation. What a brilliant time to be based in Delhi.

Mashal: Yeah. No. It's it's overwhelming, hugely overwhelming, but definitely fascinating also.

Lockwood: That's it for this week's episode of One Decision. We drop new episodes every Thursday. Like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. Drop us a line. Tell us your thoughts. What decisions have impacted you, and where you live. You can write to us. Our email is 1decision@1decisionpodcast.com. From me and the team, thank you for listening, and see you next time.