Episode Info
- Season12
Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Episode Summary
The man who once led British intelligence, Sir Richard Dearlove weighs in on the mass protests we have witnessed in response to major reforms proposed by both President Emanuel Macron and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their countries. Will these leaders and their proposals survive? We offer a special short analysis on the situations & scenarios for the deep public discontent on display at the moment in Israel, as well as France.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mcfarlane: You're listening to an update from One Decision. I'm your host Julia McFarlane. Every week we take an in-depth look at the big choices facing our world. Decisions made in the past that have changed lives and decisions that have yet to be made, but which may affect us all. We drop full episodes on our channel every Thursday. But in the meantime, we thought we would call up our One Decision cohost, our in house spymaster, former spymaster, really, Sir Richard Dearlove, who used to run Britain's Secret Intelligence Service. I wanted to know what he thought of some developing global stories before we cover them in full. Two world leaders, the president and prime minister of France and Israel, who both have big choices facing them.
ANALYSIS WITH SIR RICHARD DEARLOVE
Dearlove: Well, you've got two political leaders with very high opinions of themselves, Netanyahu and Macron, who are both facing, well, significant rebellions. I okay. Maybe that's a bit too strong a word. But they have both got massive problems. And what's interesting is that Macron is clearly trying to tough it out. This increase in the pension age, which I think in France is a big deal despite the fact that their pension age is one of the lowest in Europe. And economically, it's probably an essential step that they have to take in the medium to long term, but the unions, which are powerful in France, just will not accept it. And then, you know, you have Netanyahu running a government which has a very tough right wing composition, trying to, as it were, restrain the power of the judiciary, which has caused Netanyahu himself a lot of problems in the past. So he has understandable motivation. Although he seems to have backed off and at least hasn't said he's abandoning the legal issues that they're trying to change, but has said that he would postpone them. So, you know, both countries have been characterized by huge and pretty violent demonstrations.
Mcfarlane: Yeah, I mean, you have essentially a conflict in both countries between the people's competing vision of the direction of their country. And the stakes may be higher in Israel. What they are talking about is safeguarding their democracy. But in France, the pension reforms, it's sort of hard for us here in the UK to try and sort of see things from their point of view. As you mentioned, it's their retirement age is a lot lower than ours. They have a peculiar attitude to their work life balance, which we don't have in this country and they certainly don't have in America. I'm always so tickled to hear how the French have made it, for example, illegal to answer work emails out of office hours and just how that's enforced. But the French, they argue that Macron doesn't understand how the French see themselves or aspects of French life. It was the same thing when there was legislation on speed limits in the countryside. It was the same argument, you don't understand how we live out in the countryside. And over in Israel, it is the competing visions of Israel and the population who feel very strongly that they need an independent Supreme Court as a part of their democracy, that you can't have a court essentially being an enforcer of the executive. It sort of defeats the purpose of having the judiciary there if they are just there to take the order. And what's interesting is that, obviously, Netanyahu could get a parliamentary majority because of the composition of his government.
Dearlove: But Macron is using the peculiarities of the constitution of the Fifth Republic, which was, of course, created by de Gaulle. And he put this measure in where you can, as it were, use this emergency power to get it through the National Assembly without a vote because de Gaulle alleged that, you know, the French could never agree in the National Assembly on anything, and therefore, you needed a mechanism for strong leadership. And, of course, it's really backfired for Macron. Yeah. And it's made his position look extraordinarily contentious and weak. And, of course, he isn't gonna be running for reelection because he's finished, he will have finished his presidential term. But, I mean, I'm always amazed by how the French are prepared, you know, in a crisis to go out on the street. I mean, having lived for a long time in France and watched this happen, I mean, their ability to tear their cities apart.
Mcfarlane: Oh, yeah. I mean, it was. Yeah. I mean, I remember at the foreign desk at ABC News, me and my colleagues try and explain to the Americans who would always get very excited about burning tires in Paris and having to explain to them that, you know, protests in Paris only means that it's Tuesday. It does seem to be an argument very particular about Macron and his handling of things, his sort of his whole Élysée Palace, Jupiterian big man of history shtick, because this executive power has been used before. There has been precedent for—
Dearlove: It's been used for a number of times. Yeah. It's not unusual, but I think he's clearly somehow managed to lighten on the wrong issue. And I mean, this sort of macro detachment from popular street politics and the feeling that he's above it. It's a very interesting phenomenon. But I mean, the irony is in a way economically, Macron's right on this issue. I mean, if France doesn't sort out its pensions policy over time, it's going to be a very expensive and difficult issue for the government to solve in the longer term, particularly as the population ages. And as you get more and more people in that group who are living on their pensions and the working population who are sort of supporting them, it becomes an equation that which over time doesn't work. So essentially, the decision is that Macron should have to stick his oar in and hold out, essentially? Well, I think it looks as though he's gonna try and hold out. Let's see what happens. I think over time, the street violence probably will subside. But I mean, I read in the papers this morning that a lot of students are now joining the unions and that several universities are closed and the students, I mean, it's a little bit reminiscent of Les Événements of '68 when, you know, Paris was on fire.
Mcfarlane: The universities are also joining the general strikes in Israel as well. And it's something the issue hasn't got away. It's merely been parked. But alongside the judicial overhauls are all of these other laws that the Israeli government is getting through because of its very right wing, that the religious zealots in Netanyahu's coalition who want to legislate things like during Passover, during fasting times, it's illegal for doctors to bring pita breads in to work, even at a time now where it's Ramadan, and so you'll have Muslim doctors who've been fasting all day now no longer able to take bread with them to eat when they can break their fast. Yeah, I mean, is extraordinary that you can have these sort of religious—
Dearlove: influences operating inside government policy and causing such, you know, strong reactions. I mean, I think in a way, you know, Netanyahu's meant to be, you know, this political magician. I think maybe—
Mcfarlane: pulling off this magic trick is beyond him. That's it from this world update from the One Decision podcast. If you enjoyed this little conversation, why not check out our channel for our main offerings which drop every Thursday? Just search One Decision wherever you find your podcasts. From me and the team, thank you for listening, and see you next time.
