Episode Info
- Season17
Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove
Guest
Vivian Salama
Vivian Salama is a Wall Street Journal reporter discussing takeaways from the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania and Ukraine's future.
Episode Summary
After a tense start, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walked away from the NATO summit with some tangible wins—unprecedented long-term security commitments–and a clear path to join the alliance. In this week's bonus episode, Brett Bruen, the former Director of Global Engagement in President Obama’s White House speaks with the Wall Street Journal's Vivian Salama from Vilnius, Lithuania. They discuss the big takeaways from the meeting, Ukraine's future and how Russian President Vladimir Putin may view the developments out of Vilnius. Salama also shares an update on her colleague, reporter Evan Gershkovich who has been detained for over 100 days in a Russian prison.
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Transcript
INTRODUCTION
Mcfarlane: I'm Julia McFarlane, host of One Decision, the podcast that looks at the choices made that shape our world. Together with my cohost, the former chief of British intelligence, Sir Richard Dearlove, we unpack the key decisions, past, present, and future, that matter to us all. We drop new episodes every Thursday. But today, we're bringing you One More Decision, smart analysis of the latest breaking news around the world with Global Situation Room president Brett Bruen, who served as the White House director of global engagement during the Obama administration. Over to you, Brett.
Bruen: Thanks, Julia. I had the chance to speak with The Wall Street Journal's national security reporter, Vivian Salama, as she went between meetings towards the end of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Vivian, could I ask, where are you right now? What does it look like, and can you give us a sense of what's happening?
INTERVIEW
Salama: So I'm here in Vilnius, the scene of the annual NATO Leaders Summit, a very quaint Eastern European city. Streets are pretty much closed off to traffic, and so it's been a little bit of a no man's land, mostly motorcades and delegations walking through the streets. Literally, we're seeing presidents and their entourages strolling down the streets, and you never know who you're gonna bump into. So it's a little bit of an unusual feeling and certainly not, you know, typical for this small city. But one of the really striking things that we all noticed when we got here is you're literally seeing more Ukrainian flags hanging up all over the city than you are Lithuanian flags. Ironic, but also understandable. Lithuania is a former member of the Soviet Union, and it declared its independence after the collapse just as Ukraine did. And so there is a shared history, but also a shared sense that Ukraine's fate could be their fate. And so you see this astonishing outpouring of, like, support, solidarity, and just love for the Ukrainian people here, and that's pretty incredible.
Bruen: So, Vivian, would you say that the Ukrainians are leaving Vilnius disappointed with what they've gotten? Obviously, president Zelenskyy on the first day was rather upset and even expressed that frustration via a tweet.
Salama: So there was a very tense period on the first day of the summit Tuesday where president Zelenskyy, on arrival, essentially tweeted out that he believed that the ambiguity being shown by NATO allies in terms of a timeline and any kind of specific circumstances for Ukrainian accession into NATO was, quote, unprecedented and absurd. Really stark language that he used just as he was arriving here to Vilnius. And so it set things in motion on a rather tense note. He was clearly upset, clearly frustrated by the fact that during discussions to finalize the official communique of the NATO summit, they were tossing around language that referred to an invitation, a future invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. Mind you, it's not the first time that Ukraine has heard something like this because they were essentially offered similar assurances in 2008. Both Ukraine and Georgia were told that they were, you know, potential prospective members of NATO and that, you know, the alliance would be encouraged to see them kind of embark on this path toward the required democratic reforms and military enhancement, military expansion needed to really qualify. And so for fifteen years, they've basically been getting the same line, and he was very frustrated about that. And indeed, that is the language that appeared in the communique at the end of the day. They essentially said they will extend an invitation when the time is right and when Ukraine has met the requirements for NATO, and they've cited particularly democratic reforms. And, specifically, what are we talking about? Corruption and things like that, which, you know, Ukraine has struggled with for years, you know, even in peacetime. And so this was a frustrating set of events for the Ukrainians. But on Wednesday, president Zelenskyy struck a more conciliatory tone in terms of wanting, you know, stating that his real desire is first additional weapons and support for Ukraine's armed forces who are still very much embroiled in this heavy conflict across the country. Secondly, he used the word invitation, but really he's seeking membership, official membership into NATO. And thirdly, security guarantees, which is something that's been talked about now for months in terms of any kind of concrete official binding assurances from NATO on a specific plan of action to provide assistance for Ukraine, military assistance for Ukraine in the years to come.
Bruen: And there were some conversations that took place evidently behind the scenes. National security adviser Jake Sullivan seemed to walk back some of president Biden's comments to Fareed Zakaria on CNN that past Sunday, where he said the war doesn't necessarily have to end for Ukraine to be admitted as a member of NATO. So just take us into these definitions and distinctions. When exactly are they talking about Ukraine becoming eligible for membership?
Salama: Well, that's just it. There is no time frame, and that's very much what's been frustrating and angering the Ukrainians is that they're being so ambiguous about the timing and just offering, you know, a quote, unquote, inshallah, as I always say, a sort of blanket, like, we're supporting you, but with no real plan of action, no real specifics as far as timing, a sort of quota or target that Ukraine should reach in order to satisfy the requirements. It's just vague. And so that's why they arrived here so frustrated trying to say, you know, we're doing everything in our power to sort of qualify to be part of your club, you're still kicking the can down the road and we're tired of it. He sort of moderated his tone as the hours went by after arriving, but he clearly arrived frustrated. And what we heard from Jake Sullivan, what we've heard from President Biden is you have to understand where Zelenskyy is coming from. And they say they do understand where Zelenskyy is coming from. He's under a lot of pressure. He's got this intense military campaign on his hands. People are dying. People are being dislocated from their homes. And so it's something that is increasingly weighing on him, on his presidency, trying to keep his troops' morale up. It's all of these factors playing into that frustration that you saw aired so publicly when he arrived here in Vilnius. But, you know, US officials telling us they get where he's coming from. But on the flip side, you have to recognize the US is doing everything in its power. It has poured billions and billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine, more than any other country. It's well over 40,000,000,000 at this stage, more than any other NATO ally. It has provided the heaviest and hardest systems because no one makes them like the US makes them. And so there is a little bit of frustration behind the scenes among the Americans where they say, you know, we're doing everything for this guy, and he should show us a little bit more deference and gratitude about the fact that we're really doing this for him. But then they'll tell you publicly, you know, we get where he's coming from, and they do get where he's coming from. It's not easy. We're in his position, and he's gotta fight for his people and fight for every scrap that they get to continue this fight because who knows how long it's gonna last.
Bruen: And I should mention, you've covered this war from Ukraine several times. So perhaps more than most reporters in Vilnius at the summit, you have a strong sense of the Ukrainian perspective. How do you think people back both in Kyiv as well as on the front lines of these battles are going to view what's come out of the summit? Is it a dud, or is it something that they feel they can build on?
Salama: It's certainly something that's gonna be viewed with frustration in Kyiv. And not just Kyiv, by the way, not just Ukraine. The Polish president was expressing his frustration early Wednesday about the fact that the alliance cannot come to an agreement on this particular issue. And he said, the longer we drag our feet, the worse it's going to get. And I remember, you know, President Zelenskyy in his initial statement, the scathing statement, he called it weakness. And he said it was going to embolden Russia. And that's definitely on the minds of every country on the Eastern flank, including right here in Lithuania, where they're so afraid that any wavering, any show of slight, you know, disagreement within the alliance will essentially embolden Russia. And particularly where Putin is in a position where, you know, he's coming off of this challenge to his authority and the domestic situation seems so uncertain there. Potential crackdowns coming as a result of the challenge that he recently faced from Yevgeny Prigozhin. And so you're dealing with an unpredictable neighbor in this part of the world, and they're very nervous that the show of events that happened here in Lithuania over the course of the past two days are really going to make matters worse and inflame the situation. But there's also, like, an interesting flip side to this. And, you know, you kinda mentioned my time, my various trips to Ukraine. And one of the things I found interesting, and I'll tell you a really quick story, is when I was in one of the eastern cities in between Kharkiv and Sloviansk, we were in this small little town, and, you know, we usually travel in a group because we have a translator with us and photographer and security. You know, we're very lucky to have that kind of team where we go. And the mayor was talking to us, and he was so grateful for all the assistance Ukraine was getting and kind of expressing that to us. And it's a very simple, provincial, you know, gentleman, didn't speak any English, so we're kind of working through translators. And as we drove away, he started shouting and chasing after the car saying, I love Boris Johnson. Thank you, Boris Johnson. And this is months after Boris Johnson stepped down as prime minister of the UK. But what the Ukrainian sees that the British have been so swift in delivering on aid whenever they need something, the British then send them these systems that they're desperate for, long range missiles, including tanks, including, you know, some of the really desperately needed systems. And they see the US as wavering, as just being indecisive on these kinds of things, dragging its feet a little bit. And so I talked to one senior defense official in Ukraine about it, and I explained, you know, the situation. I kinda told him this funny story. And he said, the problem is, like, we're grateful to all of them. But the British are so quick. They're so decisive. They just whatever we need, we get it. The Americans will drag their feet for months and months and months, but when they deliver, it's like lightning. That was exactly how he described it to me. And so, you know, that's the sense in Ukraine. And then on top of that, now you have differences in opinions about, you know, about membership, which is a very, very sensitive topic there. It's bound to be met with frustration.
Bruen: Well, there is that old quote, which was allegedly attributed to Winston Churchill that Americans will do the right thing after exhausting all of the other options. So perhaps we've seen a little bit of that this week. I do wanna ask and also mention you have a colleague, Evan Gershkovich, who has been detained now for over a hundred days in a Russian prison. First, what do you know in terms of how he's doing? And secondly, what are you hearing, and how do you think post-Prigozhin mutiny Putin is looking at the world right now? And how will he look at what has come out of the NATO summit?
Salama: Well, first of all, thank you for asking about Evan. You know, our hearts are very heavy every day, and Wednesday marks fifteen weeks since Evan was detained. And so it's hard to wrap our heads around that. But, yeah, he had a consular service recently, and the US ambassador to Russia was able to sit with him briefly. He also had a hearing, so we were able to see him. Unfortunately, he was behind that glass cage that is, you know, such a stark and harsh image of just what happens sort of in these situations. A free, innocent man is standing there behind a cage, and it's just so heartbreaking to see. He seems to be in good spirits. He is in good health. He's keeping himself busy. You know, the word we get from various Wall Street Journal representatives and from, of course, the embassy is that obviously it's a terrible situation, but he's a young man and he is staying strong. And we're all trying to stay strong with him and kind of send those good vibes. And so, you know, we just continue to try to keep his name out there, make sure people know that this is still going on, and really all collectively remind people over and over again that journalism isn't a crime. As far as Putin's position right now with Prigozhin, it's a mystery. And I'm not saying that as a personal view. I mean, I talk to US officials all the time, including people in the intelligence community, and there's a bit of head scratching going on as far as how this whole entire situation played out. It was clear that there was growing discontent, that this challenge was not something that just kind of sparked overnight. Prigozhin was becoming more and more vocal, more outspoken about his disapproval on the way that the war was being handled, the way the military was conducting certain operations. And so when this happened, it was a culmination of several months of public airing of frustrations. But the way that it ended so abruptly continues to be a mystery, as does his very brief trip to Belarus where president Lukashenko of Belarus confirmed that Prigozhin was sent there and stayed there for a bit. But then he later on confirmed that he was back in Russia, first in Saint Petersburg, and then he went to Moscow, he visited with Putin. And we don't have a ton of information about those meetings. And so it's so unclear, and it's honestly so intriguing to watch this series of events that have unfolded. But as far as, you know, whether or not Putin's authority has in any way been weakened or challenged by this, it's so hard to say. He's cleaning up house clearly. I don't think we've seen even the beginning of his effort to clean up house and to really drill down on who's loyal and who's not. It's hard to imagine. And I did some interviews while I was here at the NATO summit with several Russian dissidents about, you know, what the future looks like, and all of them had a very grim outlook, which is, you know, Russia can't move on.
Bruen: I've got one last question for you. The podcast, obviously, is called One Decision. And I wonder if you could take us inside that large hall where the NATO summit was held. What was a decision that the hosts, the Lithuanians, made that perhaps surprised you or even impressed you?
Salama: I think they put themselves on the map with this conference, honestly. They gave the press T-shirts. A lot of times at these conferences, you get a little bit of swag, very simple stuff. And they gave us T-shirts that read, I bet you didn't know where Vilnius was until the NATO summit happened. They laugh at themselves, and they're good. You know, they have a good sense of humor, obviously. But they really showed that this little city can really move mountains with regard to policy, with regard to holding an international gathering where you have dozens of world leaders in one place with the immense security and the protocol that needs to go on and the planning. The city is overflowing. Every single hotel is booked up. Flights are canceled because of all the presidential and prime minister heads of state that are coming in and out of the airport. So the airport's been shut down. Flights are being canceled left and right. And so they're pulling it off. I mean, if you look through the streets, it gets a little bit hectic, especially when the president of the United States is moving through the streets because he has the biggest motorcade. But they're making it work. We've all been really impressed by it. And you know, for anyone listening, if you haven't been to Vilnius, it's a really lovely, charming city, and the weather, especially this time of year, absolutely gorgeous. It's been nice to get out of the swamp. That's for sure.
Bruen: Well, we will look forward to strolling soon the streets of Vilnius. Vivian Salama, The Wall Street Journal's national security reporter, thank you so much for joining us, and have a safe return to Washington. On behalf of our team, thank you for listening. We'll catch you next week.
