Bonus: Can China & the US Turn Down the Temperature?

Hosted by Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove

Guest

Episode Summary

Since President Biden and President Xi exchanged handshakes and smiles at last year’s G20, relations between the two powers have been on shaky ground. Most recently, the United States Defense Secretary was snubbed by his Chinese counterpart in Singapore during a regional defense summit. The Chinese military has lashed out at the United States holding a joint exercise with Canada in the waters around Taiwan, and the United States is still angry at Beijing over the recent saga of ‘spy balloons’ found floating in the air above American towns. As Taiwan warns that Beijing is getting ready to invade in a matter of years, American leaders still seem to be settling on a strategy for how to defend the island. One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and Brett Bruen look at what the latest diplomatic developments and military maneuvers mean for the possibility of avoiding conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

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Transcript

INTRODUCTION

Mcfarlane: You're listening to One More Decision, a short update from the team that brings you One Decision, the podcast that looks at the big choices made that shape our world. I'm your host, Julia McFarlane, journalist and broadcaster. I'm joined today by Brett Bruen, former global engagement director in the Obama White House and now running Global Situation Room, who commissioned our weekly international politics podcast, One Decision. We drop our full episodes every Thursday. But today, we wanted to take a brief look at some of the news that's been making headlines this week. So, Brett, I thought it might be good for us to take stock of some of the interesting things that have been happening recently in the long standing US China saga. Last week was, of course, the Shangri-La Dialogue, basically the Asian version of the Munich Security Conference. It's the biggest security summit in Asia, and it was dominated really by the US Chinese competition. And there were, of course, those spy balloons lately. There's increased concern over Taiwan. And then the Chinese were really upset recently when the US and Canadian militaries had a pretty close call in the waters around the Taiwan Strait at the same time that the summit was was happening. The Chinese were really angry at what they described as a deliberately provoking risk by the US and the Canadians who staged a rare joint sailing exercise through the Taiwan Strait. Where would you assess the current sort of US China — conflict is too strong a word, but but but let's say competition.

INTERVIEW

Bruen: Well, let's start in Singapore where I think next year they're going to have to rename it the Shangri-La monologues because there wasn't much in the way of dialogue happening. Instead, you had Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, delivering what amounts to a pretty direct challenge to China and how it's been conducting itself both diplomatically as well as militarily over the last few years. And and similarly, I think from the Chinese side, you saw some strong words used. And what we're all witnessing right now is an effort on both sides to test and to probe — where are the limits and where are we going to rebalance this relationship. And it seems as though over the course of the last several years that there have been multiple attempts to try and rein in China. Meanwhile, China will continue to, whether it's on the intelligence front as you raise the the case of those now famous Chinese spy balloons flying not only over the US, but over Latin America and in other parts of the world. Whether it's the case, there was recently an alarming discovery of Chinese police officers in New York who were actually detaining citizens, including US citizens, in Chinese police facilities here in the United States. I mean, all of this in addition to those very dangerous maneuvers being made both by Chinese planes as well as by Chinese naval vessels represents a challenge, a challenge not only to the United States, but to the way in which diplomacy as well as military operations have been conducted over the course of the last several decades. Where does this ultimately net out? It's unclear, but as you mentioned, Secretary Antony Blinken is headed to Beijing after delaying his trip because of those Chinese spy balloons. And there will be an attempt by the American side to reach some level of dialogue and hopefully to try and contain some of both the Chinese ambition, some of China's extracurricular activities in the hope that we don't find ourselves, as John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson said in the White House briefing room earlier this week, that we don't find ourselves inadvertently in a conflict or in a literal or figurative spiral when two planes collide over the South China Sea.

Mcfarlane: I think that's really important. And the the story about the unofficial or official Chinese police stations in the US, we had a very similar story here in the UK, that there was a a bit of a diplomatic spat. There was a UK security minister announced recently that China had closed its police service stations at sites across the UK following an investigation, which I think the Brits said that they hadn't revealed any illegal activity by the Chinese state at any of these sites. But nonetheless, they had been shut down, and the Chinese were quite angry at at this, and they accused the Brits of of making complete political lies with regard to the running of these police posts. Kirby's warnings and and concerns about what could eventually lead to a conflict or a a figurative spiral, what people seem to be most worried about is the issue of Taiwan and how a potential head-on collision with the Chinese is looking to be inevitable. And of course, America is a very strong supporter of of Taiwan. And we've had the Taiwanese themselves, including the foreign minister, warning quite recently that they think that there is gonna be conflict with China in 2027. Some US officials, General Mike Minihan, who's a former deputy commander for the US Indo-Pacific Command, said publicly a few weeks ago that his gut told him to expect a conflict in 2025. There are all kinds of dates that people are sort of guesstimating when Beijing is going to make a move. There is, of course, Xi Jinping's grand plan. He's got a big plan where he wants to actualize a lot of Chinese goals, one of which is is bringing Taiwan underneath its rule. One thing that is interesting, and I don't know how you feel about us picking up another podcast, but one of our former guests on One Decision, Charlie Parton, he said in a recent episode of Chinese Whispers, he thinks that Beijing will not go to war over Taiwan anytime soon. And that is because, he argues, the economic catastrophe that would be unleashed on not just China, but the whole world would far outweigh any kind of objective that they could work towards in terms of trying to seize Taiwan and that it would not be in the best interests of either the Chinese or the US to make moves on Taiwan. And given the economic fallout we've seen with the full invasion of Ukraine by the Russians, that this is something that absolutely will have occurred to Xi Jinping. What do you make of that?

Bruen: I think there are two important lessons that we need to take from what has transpired in Ukraine. The first lesson is one that Beijing is studying closely right now, which is that it was perhaps a mistake, almost certainly a mistake, for Vladimir Putin to mount a full-on invasion of the country. And indeed on this podcast, with Robert Gates, the former US defense secretary, you spoke to him about the issue of Taiwan, and he raised this question of nibbling. The the notion that China might start sending troops out to various atolls and rock formations, claiming them for China. And that would certainly give Xi Jinping a propaganda boost and one that he may desperately need in the coming months if the economy continues to sputter along and his political standing is somewhat shaky. So is the US, will the international community send troops in, create a major destabilizing conflict with China over a few rocks? I think that is very much an unresolved question. I think it is something quite frankly that President Biden and other leaders need to pronounce themselves on so as to avoid the the prospect that this is an attractive option for the Chinese. But it also, in in the second lesson from Ukraine, raises a hard issue for Biden and other world leaders, that is we did not do enough insofar as deterrence to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And we ought to now be looking at how do we correct for that with respect to Taiwan. I think we have to be a lot more specific both in terms of what we will do in advance of an invasion. When these kinds of provocative dangerous maneuvers by ships and military airplanes take place, the next time we ought to impose additional consequences and we ought to preview those so that Beijing can weigh the calculation and weigh the cost of of engaging that kind of behavior. Because I think what we saw in the case of Ukraine, and I remember this sitting around in the Situation Room at the White House back in 2013, 2014, was watching the Russians test those limits for the international community. And we really did not, I think, respond with enough resolve, with enough of a forceful both statement as well as actions.

Mcfarlane: Do you think China is watching what is happening in Ukraine and is seeing frankly how expensive it is to wage a war, how much logistics it takes, how it impacts everything from energy supply to grain supply and food supply. And they're thinking actually, Ukraine is so much smaller than Russia. This really should have been Putin's — for Putin, it really should have been there for the taking. Even he can't hold on to the slivers of Ukraine that he's essentially been sat in since 2014. And of course, the PLA are really quite untested in combat, far less than the Russian army have. Do you think that perhaps Ukraine has shown that it is actually less likely that the Chinese will go to war, bluntly speaking, over Taiwan?

Bruen: I think that the invasion of Ukraine has shown a lot of the shortcomings of armies that are run by authoritarian leaders because there is this inherent reluctance to speak truth to power. There is a challenge of how you manage and motivate a force that, while they may be compelled by fear of execution, by fear of consequences to themselves or their families, that pales in comparison to the motivation that those defending their homeland, defending a way of life, can stand resolutely against such an oppressive force. So I think for Beijing, they have gone back to the drawing board and looked at what are some of those shortcomings. One, I think from a supply standpoint, you will — and and the Chinese are extraordinary at forecasting out years and decades in terms of what supply chains look like and and certainly when it comes to the military. So I think it's important for the international community to zero in closely now on what kinds of acquisitions Beijing's engaged in. But then secondly, yes, it may be a cautionary tale for Beijing. But also, I don't think we should discount the sense of superiority that the Chinese feel over Russia and that they could and would do this so much better.

Mcfarlane: I think that's a really good point. China is definitely operating on a different timescale than a lot of other countries. They're planning 2049, the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party. They are not in a rush, unlike Putin who is in a totally different position.

Bruen: I think you're right that China — I remember going over several times to do talks after I left the Obama administration and giving a talk in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing alongside a number of Chinese leaders. It was just remarkable to hear how, where we talk about quarters or years, they're talking about decades and centuries. And indeed, history is very much alive in China in a way that it does not permeate our lives, thinking, our planning. And Xi Jinping is very conscious both of his place in history as well as where he sees China getting by 2049, back to a place in in some respects that they were in history during past dynasties. And I think if we talk about goals, that very much for Xi Jinping, what he sees as the restoration of China's rightful place amongst the great nations of the world, restoring in some respects the Chinese dynasties of the past, his will be his legacy. And as a result of that, he, I think, does have his sights on Taiwan and that Taiwan would indeed be the crown jewel in all of the efforts that he has made over the last several years to elevate and to empower China. So I don't think that we should take for granted, and I perhaps would differ with Charlie Parton on this point, that Taiwan remains a top priority for Beijing. I think we need to make the defense of Taiwan and the deterrence of any aggression towards Taiwan and the region our top priority.

Mcfarlane: That's it for this week's episode of One Decision. We drop new episodes every Thursday. Like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. Drop us a line. Tell us your thoughts. What decisions have impacted you and where you live? You can write to us. Our email is 1decision@1decisionpodcast.com. From me and the team, thank you for listening, and see you next time.